Russia has issued an increasingly stark warning to the Baltic region, threatening a “devastating” response to what Moscow described as hostile action, hours after NATO activated its Baltic air-policing mission following drone incursions near Estonia.
Maria Zakharova, Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, said Moscow would respond forcefully to what she called “reckless anti-Russian ventures”.
“Russia’s response to the instigators of reckless anti-Russian ventures will be decisive,” she said.
“They need to know this – it will be devastating for them,” she added.
The warning came after drones were reported to have flown close to Estonia’s border and entered its airspace, prompting the launch of fighter jets from Latvia under NATO’s Baltic air-policing mission.
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Finland also restricted air and maritime traffic close to Russia as authorities responded to the latest security incident.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said NATO had responded according to established procedures and remained prepared to defend allied territory.
“The alliance reacted swiftly and exactly as planned,” he said.
“The alliance is vigilant and ready to protect allied territory,” Tsahkna added.
“Incidents like this are a direct consequence of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and underline the need to increase pressure on Russia to end its aggression.”
The confrontation comes as concern grows among NATO members over the frequency of Russian drones entering or approaching European airspace.
Politico reported last week that CIA director John Ratcliffe’s surprise visit to Moscow was intended in part to warn Russian officials against escalating tensions with US allies in NATO, particularly Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
The Baltic states have been among the most vocal supporters of Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion and have repeatedly warned that Moscow could pose a wider security threat to NATO territory.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have argued that increasingly frequent Russian drone incursions into European and NATO airspace reflect a broader shift in Moscow’s approach.
They said Vladimir Putin had adopted a “reckless policy” that accepts the possibility of drones entering European and NATO airspace as part of wider pressure on the alliance.
The analysts assessed that the incursions form part of Russia’s “Phase Zero” campaign, designed to “set informational and psychological conditions for potential future provocations against NATO”.
The latest incident highlights the increasingly narrow margin for error around the alliance’s eastern flank. While the drones have not necessarily represented deliberate attacks on NATO territory, repeated incursions create the possibility of miscalculation or escalation at a time when European governments are already increasing defence spending.
For the Baltic states, the episodes are also reinforcing calls for greater allied vigilance and stronger deterrence. For Moscow, however, the deployment of NATO aircraft and restrictions imposed by neighbouring countries risk becoming further evidence of what the Kremlin characterises as an increasingly hostile military environment.
Zakharova’s warning raises the stakes further, with her description of the potential Russian response as “devastating” signalling that Moscow intends to treat attempts to increase pressure on Russia as a direct challenge.
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