US intelligence agencies have raised fresh concerns that Vladimir Putin could attempt a limited military strike against a NATO member as early as this autumn, marking a sharp escalation in fears that the Kremlin may seek to test the alliance’s resolve beyond Ukraine’s borders.
According to reports from the Wall Street Journal, American officials previously assessed that Russia’s war in Ukraine would prevent Moscow from opening another front against the West.
That calculation has now shifted, with intelligence assessments warning that a hybrid warfare campaign or a limited territorial incursion could be possible between later this year and 2029.
The warnings mirror growing anxiety among European governments that Russia may exploit divisions within NATO and probe the alliance’s commitment to collective defence.
Germany’s military leadership has already cautioned that Russia could possess the capability to threaten NATO territory within the coming years. Meanwhile, Baltic officials have warned that the Kremlin may seek a new confrontation to demonstrate strength and create political instability across Europe.
Lithuania’s defence minister Robert Kaunas said Russia’s leadership may be searching for a new victory after limited battlefield progress in Ukraine, identifying the Baltic states and Poland as potential pressure points.
“The Kremlin needs a new escalation,” he warned, arguing that Russia could view NATO’s eastern flank as the most vulnerable area for testing Western resolve.
He told LRT Radio: “The Kremlin, Putin, needs a new escalation, some kind of new victory, and in this case the Baltic region and Poland are the closest targets.”
Concerns have intensified following a series of suspicious drone incidents across Europe. Germany is investigating after an explosive-laden drone was discovered near a Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig airport, with officials describing the incident as a possible hybrid attack. While Russia has not been directly blamed, European governments have repeatedly accused Moscow of using sabotage, cyber operations and covert actions to undermine Western security.
US officials believe Russia could attempt to exploit weaknesses created by growing pressure on Western military stockpiles. Washington has faced shortages of key air defence systems and precision weapons amid competing global commitments, raising concerns over whether NATO has sufficient reserves for a major confrontation.
Ukraine has already warned that declining Western supplies are leaving it increasingly exposed. President Volodymyr Zelensky said deliveries of air defence missiles had fallen sharply compared with last year, while Russian forces have intensified attacks on Ukrainian cities.
A recent barrage against Kyiv killed civilians and involved dozens of ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones. Ukrainian officials said none of the ballistic missiles launched in the assault were intercepted.
For NATO planners, the central concern is no longer only whether Russia can defeat Ukraine, but whether Moscow believes it can challenge the wider alliance without triggering a full-scale response.
A limited strike on NATO territory would represent the most dangerous test of European security since the end of the Cold War — and officials fear Putin may be calculating that uncertainty, exhaustion and depleted weapons stocks have created an opportunity.
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