A former senior alliance chief warns Moscow’s sabotage, cyber operations and attacks on confidence are part of a long-term strategy, as Donald Trump’s softer line on the Kremlin deepens fears over Western unity.
Russia is already waging war against NATO — not through a conventional invasion, but through a calculated campaign designed to weaken its members, undermine public confidence and fracture the alliance from within, a former senior military commander has warned.
Retired US four-star general Curtis Scaparrotti, who commanded NATO forces in Europe from 2016 to 2019, delivered a stark assessment of the Kremlin’s intentions, warning Western governments against dismissing suspected sabotage, cyberattacks and other hostile activity as isolated provocations.
“From my perspective, if you looked at it from their spectrum, we’re at war with Russia today, within the alliance,” he told an Atlantic Council gathering in Washington.
His warning cuts to the heart of a growing strategic dilemma for Europe: how to defend itself against a Russian campaign that falls short of open military confrontation, while uncertainty over Washington’s commitment threatens to weaken the collective response.
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Scaparrotti argued that Moscow does not recognise the same clear distinction between peace and war as Western governments.
Activities that NATO countries might categorise as below the threshold of armed conflict were, in his assessment, part of Russia’s wider military strategy — a means of eroding the ability of individual nations to support Ukraine and of shaking confidence in their own governments and the alliance itself.
The objective, he said, was to “break” NATO.
“You can count on it that it has a plan behind it, that it’s strategic, that it’s long-term,” Scaparrotti warned, urging governments to take the protection of critical infrastructure seriously.
The stakes extend far beyond the battlefield in Ukraine. Britain’s undersea communications cables, which carry vast quantities of international data, have long been viewed as vulnerable to hostile interference. Suspected Russian intelligence activity around European infrastructure has intensified concern that the Kremlin could exploit weaknesses without triggering the kind of direct military response that an overt attack might invite.
The warning comes as transatlantic relations face renewed strain over Donald Trump’s approach to Vladimir Putin.
The US president’s reported agreement to ease restrictions affecting Russian diesel supplies, in an effort to contain fuel costs ahead of domestic elections, has provoked criticism that Moscow could benefit financially while continuing its war against Ukraine.
Opponents of the move argue that revenues from energy transactions risk helping sustain Russia’s military campaign. The dispute has also sharpened questions about the reliability of American support for Kyiv, including intelligence cooperation and Ukraine’s dependence on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite communications network.
Trump has further unsettled allies by suggesting Ukraine needs new leadership and arguing that Putin is more interested in a peace settlement than the authorities in Kyiv.
European leaders have taken a markedly different line. During a meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky at Downing Street, Andy Burnham reaffirmed continuing British support, with both leaders concluding that Russia had no interest in peace.
The divergence exposes a fundamental problem for NATO, but deterrence depends not only on military strength, but on an adversary believing that its members will act together when challenged.
Trump last month maintained that Putin was “not looking to attack NATO territory”, despite a reported drone incident at a German airport that European governments, including Britain, attributed to the Kremlin. His reluctance to condemn Moscow has fuelled concern that Russia could exploit divisions between Washington and its European allies.
For Scaparrotti, the danger lies in allowing seemingly limited operations to accumulate until they have inflicted strategic damage.
A cyberattack, a suspected act of sabotage or an operation designed to spread distrust may not resemble conventional warfare. But if the cumulative purpose is to weaken infrastructure, undermine governments and obstruct support for Ukraine, the distinction offers little comfort.
The challenge facing Western capitals is therefore not simply to prepare for the possibility of a Russian attack. It is to recognise that, in the former commander’s assessment, the contest is already under way — and that the Kremlin’s most consequential gains may come from exploiting the divisions NATO creates for itself.
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