A potentially exceptional El Niño is taking shape across the Pacific, threatening to intensify extreme weather, disrupt global supply chains and put renewed pressure on food and energy prices.
The World Meteorological Organisation said the climate phenomenon was now “firmly established” and expected to strengthen substantially in the coming months, with consequences for rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, the Huff Post reported.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,” said UN secretary general António Guterres.
The WMO warned that the event could deliver “a massive blow” to communities and economies as droughts, floods and extreme heat become more severe.
“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” said WMO secretary general Celeste Saulo.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response.”
El Niño occurs when temperatures in the tropical eastern and central Pacific rise significantly above normal. Forecasts suggest sea surface temperatures could climb more than 3C above average, with some models indicating a peak closer to 4C.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, described the expected event as “unprecedented”.
“I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts,” he said. “A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between 1-2 degrees, with 2C being a really big event.
“This implies that if the forecast is accurate – and other forecast systems show similar extreme values – then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences.”
For the UK, the immediate concern is a shift towards wetter and stormier conditions during autumn and winter, increasing the risks of flooding, strong winds and disruption to transport and infrastructure.
Professor Hayley Fowler of Newcastle University said “it is likely we will see similar storms [to Storm Desmond] this coming winter”.
After an exceptionally dry summer, heavy rainfall could also increase the risk of flash flooding. Dr Akshay Deoras of the University of Reading said:
“Heavy downpours could therefore run off quickly, increasing the risk of flash flooding, surface water flooding and disruption. Strong winds could also cause damage and put additional pressure on transport and infrastructure.”
The economic effects could extend well beyond Britain’s weather. Professor Amanda Maycock of the University of Leeds warned that El Niño could affect UK food supplies and energy security.
“We should be preparing for imminent effects worldwide, including heavy rain and flooding in south-western US, East Africa and south-east China as well as drought in the Amazon basin, Southern Africa and eastern Australia,” she said.
“Although these seem like far flung places, these regions can affect what happens in the UK through global food supply and energy security.”
The prospect of renewed pressure on commodity markets comes after a summer of severe heat and drought in Britain.
Dr Nick Dunstone of the Met Office said large El Niño events can raise global temperatures significantly in the following year.
“Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed +1.5 C above the preindustrial period.”
For policymakers and businesses, the risk is therefore not limited to extreme weather. Disruption across agricultural, energy and transport markets could feed through into household costs, adding another potential source of inflationary pressure.
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