Global food prices rose to their highest level in more than four years in August, as disruption to grain exports from the Black Sea added to pressure from adverse weather and geopolitical tensions affecting global trade.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August 2026, its highest level since March 2022, according to the agency’s latest monthly report.
Prices rose across all major commodity groups, although the overall index remained about 16 per cent below the peak reached in the early months of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The increase comes after weeks of intensified Russian attacks on shipping routes and port infrastructure in the Black Sea, including strikes on civilian grain vessels. The campaign has reduced exports, increased shipping costs and discouraged some commercial operators from docking at Ukrainian ports.
Grain prices rose by 2.5 points from the previous month, partly reflecting “continued uncertainty surrounding Black Sea export flows”, the FAO said.
The cost of wheat, maize, sorghum, barley and rice all increased globally during August, with disruption to Black Sea shipping repeatedly identified as a contributing factor.
Concerns over heat and dry weather in key agricultural regions also added to the upward pressure, alongside the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted energy markets and international shipping.
Prices for vegetable oils, dairy products, meat and sugar also rose during the month.
The FAO simultaneously lowered its forecast for global grain production, cutting its estimate by 3.4mn tonnes compared with its July projection.
According to the agency, grain production in 2026 is expected to fall by more than 61 per cent from the previous year, representing “the largest annual decline since 2018”.
The organisation nevertheless said that expected output would still represent the second-largest harvest on record.
The deterioration in Black Sea trade has become an increasingly important factor in global agricultural markets.
Throughout July and August, Russia intensified attacks on Odesa’s ports and civilian shipping in an effort to restrict Ukraine’s principal export route.
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, roughly 90 per cent of Ukraine’s agricultural exports passed through the Black Sea. Agricultural trade accounted for approximately one-fifth of the country’s gross domestic product.
The disruption is now having a significant effect on export volumes.
Ukraine’s agriculture minister Taras Vysotsky said exports reached only 30 per cent of their target during the first two weeks of August, underlining the scale of the disruption to the country’s trading infrastructure.
Moscow has rejected calls to restore the Black Sea grain initiative that operated between 2022 and 2023, while attacks on ships and port facilities have continued.
Ukraine has increasingly responded with its own attacks on Russian maritime and port infrastructure, raising the prospect of a prolonged escalation across one of the world’s most strategically important shipping regions.
The consequences extend beyond the immediate conflict.
Ukraine and Russia are among the world’s most significant agricultural exporters, and disruption to supplies from the Black Sea has historically had a disproportionate effect on food prices, particularly in countries heavily dependent on imported grain.
The latest rise in the FAO’s index is therefore likely to intensify concerns about global food security, particularly if shipping disruptions persist into the next harvest cycle.
Kyiv has repeatedly argued that Moscow’s campaign against Ukrainian ports represents an attack not only on the country’s economy but on international food supplies.
In July, Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said Russia was “holding global food security hostage” through its continuing attacks on export corridors.
The FAO figures provide fresh evidence of the international economic consequences of the conflict. While food prices remain below the extreme levels seen in 2022, renewed disruption to Black Sea exports, combined with weather-related risks and wider instability in global shipping routes, has pushed agricultural markets back towards levels not seen for more than four years.
For policymakers, the concern is that a sustained deterioration in grain supplies could feed through into broader consumer inflation, placing additional pressure on households and complicating efforts by central banks to bring price growth under control.
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