Is Russia’s war clock ticking as Putin bets on a winter offensive?

Vladimir Putin may be approaching a critical moment in his war against Ukraine, with Poland’s foreign minister warning that the coming winter could represent the Kremlin’s final opportunity to force Kyiv into submission.

Radosław Sikorski said Russia is continuing its offensive and bombardment campaign but faces mounting economic and military pressures that could limit Moscow’s ability to sustain a prolonged conflict.

He argued that the Kremlin’s strategy increasingly depends on exhausting Ukraine and weakening Western unity rather than achieving decisive battlefield success.

“The winter could be Putin’s last hope to break Ukraine,” Sikorski said, claiming that Russia’s resources are being gradually depleted as the war enters another grinding phase.

The Polish foreign minister also accused Moscow of attempting to fracture relations between Poland and Ukraine, arguing that Russia has historically exploited tensions between the two nations to advance its geopolitical interests.

“For centuries, Russian agents have tried to set us against Ukrainians,” he said, warning that Warsaw and Kyiv must avoid falling into what he described as a long-running Kremlin strategy of division.

The comments come amid growing concern among NATO allies that Russia could expand its campaign beyond Ukraine through cyberattacks, sabotage or other forms of hybrid warfare. Sikorski warned that Moscow could attempt provocations against alliance members, including Poland, but said greater public awareness would make such operations harder to execute.

He also dismissed hopes that diplomatic meetings between Washington and Moscow could quickly end the war, arguing that meaningful negotiations would require Putin to abandon his ambitions to seize Ukrainian territory.

Sikorski pointed to signs of pressure inside the Russian economy, claiming Moscow had sold significant quantities of gold reserves this year — a move he suggested reflected growing strain on state finances.

For Ukraine’s allies, the stakes of the coming months are increasingly clear. A prolonged war will test Russia’s economic endurance, Western political commitment and Kyiv’s ability to maintain military resistance.

Sikorski’s message was blunt: preventing Ukraine’s defeat is not only about supporting Kyiv — it is about ensuring Russia cannot turn exhaustion into victory.