Vladimir Putin may be preparing a major new wave of attacks on Ukraine after Russia sharply reduced its missile and drone strikes, according to a warning from Estonia’s defence officials.
The apparent slowdown has sparked fears in Kyiv and across Europe that Moscow is stockpiling weapons before unleashing another devastating barrage.
Gert Kaju, head of Estonia’s Defence Readiness Department, said Russia launched around 900 drones and 12 missiles against Ukraine last week — a significant drop compared with previous attacks.
Drone strikes have fallen by around 35 per cent, while missile attacks have plunged by approximately 84 per cent.
But rather than suggesting Russia is backing down, Estonian officials believe the Kremlin may be conserving resources for a larger assault.
Previous reductions in Russian strike activity have often been followed by waves of intensified attacks involving large numbers of missiles and drones fired at once.
The warning comes as Ukraine continues a relentless campaign against Russian military and energy targets deep behind the front line.
Kyiv’s long-range strikes have hit fuel depots, logistics networks, radar systems and defence facilities, forcing Moscow to make difficult decisions about which sites it can afford to protect.
Mr Kaju said Russia’s air defence systems are not sufficient to shield every important facility, meaning the Kremlin must decide which targets receive protection — and which remain vulnerable.
“Priority targets must be chosen,” he said, warning that some Russian facilities could be left exposed.
The pressure is increasingly being felt inside occupied territory.
Russian authorities in Crimea recently declared a state of emergency after Ukrainian strikes hit key infrastructure, adding to concerns over Moscow’s ability to secure areas far from the battlefield.
Ukraine’s strategy is aimed at damaging the systems that keep Putin’s invasion running — from fuel supplies to military production.
While Russia continues attempts to expand its control in areas including the Sumy region and launch offensives around Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces claim Moscow is paying a heavy price in casualties for limited advances.
The latest developments come as the Kremlin faces a growing dilemma: continue spending vast resources protecting military infrastructure across Russia, or accept that some targets will remain exposed.
After more than four years of war, Putin’s forces are still capable of launching devastating attacks.
But Ukraine’s campaign is increasingly forcing Russia to fight a second battle — not just against Ukrainian troops, but to defend the machinery keeping the war alive.
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