NATO’s northern flank has been placed under renewed pressure after Swedish and Finnish fighter jets were scrambled to identify Russian military aircraft over the Gulf of Finland, hours before Danish intelligence warned of a “low but growing risk” of a limited Russian attack against a NATO member.
The Finnish Air Force said on Thursday that Swedish and Finnish fighters had been deployed under a joint framework to monitor and safeguard the countries’ airspace.
The aircraft tracked and identified a group of Russian military planes, including a transport aircraft and several fighters.
The incident came as European security services warned that Moscow could intensify its campaign of hybrid warfare against the West, increasing pressure on NATO governments already strengthening defences along the alliance’s eastern and northern flanks.
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Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service said Russia was expected to conduct more frequent hybrid attacks against Western countries and NATO, potentially with greater consequences than previous operations. The agency said the campaign could include cyber attacks designed to disrupt critical infrastructure and sabotage operations carrying a risk of casualties.
More significantly, the Danish service said there was a “low but growing risk” that Russia could launch a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia.
“A limited military attack would be a desperate move on Russia’s part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months,” the agency said.
Thomas Ahrenkiel, head of the Danish intelligence service, said such an operation could involve isolated strikes with long-range missiles or drones against infrastructure supporting Ukraine.
Another possible scenario would involve Russia deploying a limited number of troops into a NATO border area, potentially under the pretext of protecting Russian-speaking minorities.
“The aim is not to take over the country, but to divide NATO,” Ahrenkiel said.
The Danish assessment nevertheless stopped well short of predicting an imminent conventional invasion. The intelligence service said an outright Russian invasion of a NATO country remained “highly unlikely”, while stressing that it could not be ruled out. It also noted that a major Russian military build-up would require months of preparation and would be difficult to conceal.
The warning comes after a series of incidents across Europe that have increased concern about Moscow’s willingness to test NATO without triggering a direct military confrontation.
Germany has blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack targeting Leipzig/Halle Airport, while Denmark has separately reported a confrontation in which a Russian frigate fired flares towards a Danish military helicopter operating in international waters. Danish intelligence described the latter incident as evidence of Moscow’s increasingly aggressive behaviour towards NATO militaries in the Baltic region.
NATO’s military leadership has sought to reassure allies that the alliance is increasing its ability to detect and respond to such activity.
General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said the alliance was strengthening intelligence-sharing following the recent incidents and urged allies to remain “calm and confident” about their ability to deal with the Russian threat.
NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte has meanwhile accused Moscow of becoming “increasingly reckless” as it continues its war against Ukraine, saying attacks close to NATO territory demonstrate what he described as Russia’s desire to “sow fear and terror”.
For Finland and Sweden, the interception over the Gulf of Finland underscores the growing importance of the Baltic and Nordic airspace to NATO’s security architecture. Both countries joined the alliance following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, fundamentally altering the strategic balance around the Baltic Sea.
The latest warnings therefore point to a security environment in which the distinction between conventional military operations and lower-level coercion is becoming increasingly difficult for European governments to ignore.
For NATO, the immediate challenge is to deter escalation while ensuring that individual incidents — from unidentified drones and sabotage to military aircraft operating near allied airspace — do not develop into a wider confrontation.
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