Andy Burnham’s attempt to ease Britain’s chronic prison overcrowding is running into a fresh capacity crunch, with the number of spare places in men’s jails falling below 1,800 despite tens of thousands of offenders being released early or spared prison.
Ministry of Justice figures show just 1,783 places were available this week — close to the level that prompted Labour to introduce emergency measures in March. The number of vacant spaces had more than doubled initially, from 1,646 to 3,433, after the government restricted the use of short custodial sentences and accelerated releases.
That breathing room is now rapidly disappearing.
The prison service is operating with little margin for error. One senior official described the situation as “extremely tight”, with few options available if the prison population continues to rise.
Across England and Wales, 86,722 men, women and young offenders were in custody last week against an overall capacity of 88,921. Men’s prisons were operating at about 98 per cent capacity, with 83,096 prisoners occupying 84,819 places.
The figures create a particularly difficult political problem for Burnham, who has promised to reduce the use of early release while facing pressure over notorious offenders who could otherwise benefit from the rules.
The prime minister has pledged to do “everything possible to minimise early release” and is considering measures to prevent two killers convicted over the death of PC Andrew Harper from being released halfway through their sentences rather than after serving two-thirds.
His government has also blocked the release of almost 1,000 rapists and child groomers and is examining whether a further 500 offenders convicted of unlawful killing should remain behind bars.
Yet the arithmetic is becoming increasingly unforgiving.
More than 5,000 prisoners are due to be released from October under the government’s temporary arrangements, while the wider scheme allows some offenders to leave custody after serving half their sentence rather than two-thirds, or after one-third rather than 40 per cent.
The policy was designed to create immediate capacity after Labour inherited a prison system close to saturation. But falling spare capacity suggests the relief may prove temporary unless new prison places come online quickly enough.
There is also a risk that some offenders released early will return to custody.
Cassia Rowland, associate director at the Institute for Government, warned that a significant number could breach probation conditions and be recalled to prison, further increasing pressure on the estate.
The political danger is that Burnham is now caught between two competing pressures: public demands for tougher treatment of serious offenders and an estate that cannot comfortably accommodate them.
David Gauke, the former Conservative justice secretary, warned that retreating from the government’s earned-progression model without resolving capacity could leave ministers facing a fresh crisis within months.
The Ministry of Justice said it was accelerating plans to retain more serious offenders in custody, with details expected next month.
The government has also promised 14,000 new prison places, wider electronic tagging and increased investment in probation, while exploring faster deportation of foreign criminals and other measures to reduce pressure on the estate.
But construction takes time. Prisoners arrive every day.
For Burnham, the uncomfortable reality is that tougher sentencing and fewer early releases can only be sustained if the government can find somewhere to put the people it wants to keep behind bars.
The prison system is once again running out of room — and the political space for failure is narrowing just as quickly.
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