Poland could destroy the remaining half of Russia’s oil refining capacity within weeks if Moscow attacked NATO, Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski has claimed, as Warsaw warns that Russia’s escalating war against Ukraine is bringing the threat of a wider conflict closer to its borders.
Sikorski said Poland possessed overwhelming military advantages over Russia, including air power and deep-strike capabilities, and argued that Moscow would face a rapid defeat in a direct confrontation with the alliance.
“If Russia attacked us and we took our gloves off, I think we would defeat Russia quite quickly. We have overwhelming superiority over Russia in air power. General, correct me if I’m wrong, but it’s something like 2,500 aircraft,” he said during a discussion at the Yalta European Strategy meeting in Kyiv on Saturday.
“Even without the US it’s still overwhelming, and I haven’t checked recently how many F-35s and JASSMs and all the deep-strike capabilities we have.”
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He went further in discussing the potential impact of Polish attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure.
“But if the Ukrainians have knocked out half of Russia’s refining capacity in six months, we could do it in six weeks and take out the other half,” he continued.
Sikorski’s comments were made in the context of a potential conflict between Russia and NATO rather than a prediction of direct war between Poland and Russia.
The remarks nevertheless drew an angry response from Moscow. Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Sikorski of “Russophobia of the brain”.
Moscow has repeatedly denied speculation that it is preparing to attack NATO, although European governments have become increasingly concerned about Russian hybrid operations, sabotage and military activity near alliance territory.
The comments came as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia’s expanding attacks on Ukraine could spill into Polish territory in the coming months.
“The escalation of actions of the Russian Federation is becoming a fact and its examples are getting closer and closer to our borders,” Tusk said in a briefing with defence officials.
“What can be expected is that the next weeks and months will be a period of very intensive actions from the Russian side. Unfortunately, we cannot rule out that this escalation will also concern our territory.”
His warning followed Russian drone strikes in western Ukraine that hit a gas station near the Yahodyn-Dorohusk border crossing and a Kyiv-Warsaw passenger train roughly 2km from the Polish border.
The incident carried particular significance because a diplomatic train carrying European security officials and former British prime minister Boris Johnson had passed through the area shortly beforehand.
Ukrainian Railways said the diplomatic train could have been the intended target.
“It is quite likely that the target of this Russian drone could have been the diplomatic train, which departed from the station earlier than its scheduled time, as part of a review of train schedules in real-time due to the constant threat of Russian attacks,” the railway operator said.
Tusk said the strikes suggested Moscow was prepared to deploy increasingly dangerous weapons close to Poland and its NATO allies.
He said the attacks could have been intended to “disorganise, paralyse, and perhaps also destroy Ukrainian border crossings”, potentially threatening a critical logistical corridor between Ukraine and its European partners.
The combination of Sikorski’s warnings and Tusk’s assessment illustrates the growing tension on NATO’s eastern flank, where Poland is preparing for a conflict that Warsaw insists it does not seek but increasingly believes it must be capable of fighting.
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