Police forces across England and Wales could require almost £500mn in additional resources to manage offenders released early from prison under the government’s overcrowding measures, according to senior police chiefs.
The National Police Chiefs’ Council estimates that the 43 forces in England and Wales could face an additional £480mn burden in police time responding to licence breaches and investigating further offences committed by prisoners released before completing their full custodial terms.
The warning highlights growing concern among senior officers that efforts to ease pressure on overcrowded prisons could shift substantial costs and operational demands on to the police.
Jason Hogg, chief constable of Thames Valley Police, said forces could be forced to divert officers from responding to crimes being committed in their communities in order to monitor offenders released under the scheme.
“We’ve got difficult decisions in the coming months about having to move resources from responding to and investigating crimes that are committed today to, if you like, monitor and deal with breaches of those who are released from custody early,” he told The Telegraph.
About 2,500 prisoners, including people convicted of violent offences, domestic abuse and stalking, are expected to be released before Christmas under the government’s plans.
A Whitehall timetable published by officials indicates that the Ministry of Justice intends to accelerate releases later this year as it attempts to prevent prisons from running out of capacity.
Under the programme, 1,350 prisoners are scheduled to be released over two days in October. A further 650 are expected to leave custody in November and another 550 in December.
Those affected by the policy could be released after serving as little as one-third of their sentences in cases where they would previously have been expected to serve 40 per cent.
Further waves of early releases are expected over the following 10 months.
The scheme will operate alongside the regular flow of prisoners released after completing their sentences, adding to the number of offenders supervised in the community.
Although the probation service has primary responsibility for supervising released prisoners, police forces are responsible for investigating new offences and responding to breaches of licence conditions.
Such breaches can include failures to attend mandatory appointments, residing at an unauthorised address or entering areas from which an offender has been prohibited.
Mr Hogg said managing breaches could, in some cases, prove more demanding for police forces than investigating newly reported crimes.
Some offenders, he warned, could breach their licence conditions shortly after leaving prison.
He pointed to reoffending data suggesting that approximately one in three adults released from custody commit another offence within a year. For prisoners who have served sentences of two months or less, the proportion approaches one in two.
“We haven’t been given any additional funding for that,” Mr Hogg said.
Previous efforts to reduce prison overcrowding through early-release measures have already contributed to increasing numbers of offenders being recalled to custody.
Official figures show that recalls exceeded releases for the first time in the three months to March 31.
Police chiefs have urged ministers not to weaken recall arrangements despite continuing pressure on prison capacity.
Mr Hogg said offenders who breached licence conditions needed to face swift consequences, arguing that the effectiveness of the early-release regime would depend on a credible threat of recall.
He said prisoners released early should understand that breaches of curfews or the removal of electronic monitoring tags could result in an immediate return to custody.
However, he acknowledged the central difficulty facing the system: prisons would need sufficient capacity to accommodate those recalled after breaching their conditions.
The warning comes at a time of intense pressure on police forces more broadly.
Mr Hogg said police were already facing “red hot” demand, with emergency 999 calls at record levels.
He also echoed concerns expressed by Sir Mark Rowley, commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, over the impact that prison capacity shortages were having elsewhere in the criminal justice system.
Rowley has warned that some suspects accused of serious violent and weapons offences are increasingly being granted bail rather than being remanded in custody.
Mr Hogg said prolonged delays in the courts were creating an additional problem, weakening public confidence in the justice system and reducing its deterrent effect.
Some domestic abuse cases were taking more than a year to reach court, he said.
The criminal justice system needed to provide “swift and firm consequences” for people who broke the law, Mr Hogg argued.
The government’s prison release programme has already undergone revisions in response to political and public concern.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham said in parliament earlier this week that he “would not hesitate” to make further changes to the scheme.
He said the government had already reviewed its plans to exempt prisoners convicted of rape, grooming offences and serious child sexual offences.
The intervention is likely to increase pressure on ministers to explain how the financial consequences of the policy will be managed across the wider criminal justice system.
While early releases may temporarily ease pressure on the prison estate, police chiefs argue that the costs do not disappear but instead risk being transferred to frontline forces already struggling with high demand.
For police leaders, the central question is whether the government can create enough capacity across prisons, probation and policing simultaneously to ensure that releasing offenders early does not further weaken an already stretched criminal justice system.
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