Andy Burnham is set to enter Downing Street facing one of the most difficult political starting points of any modern Prime Minister who has taken power midway through a parliamentary term.
The incoming Labour leader may have secured a brief boost after Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation, but polling expert Sir John Curtice has warned that the party remains trapped at historically weak levels of public support.
Speaking to GB News, Sir John said Labour was averaging around 21 per cent in the polls — the lowest rating inherited by any Prime Minister arriving during the middle of a parliament.
By comparison, Rishi Sunak took over the Conservatives in 2022 with the party polling around 23 per cent, while Boris Johnson inherited support of around 25 per cent when he became Conservative leader in 2019.
“Andy Burnham is still facing a very difficult situation,” Sir John said.
Leadership changes often provide parties with a temporary boost as voters reassess their views.
Labour has already enjoyed a modest bounce since Starmer announced his departure, and Sir John said Burnham could see a further short-term improvement.
But the veteran pollster warned that the recovery may already be losing momentum.
The political challenge facing Burnham is clear: he inherits a huge parliamentary majority, but without the public support normally associated with a government in a strong position.
That creates a difficult balance.
Calling an early election could risk exposing Labour’s weakness, while waiting too long could allow opposition parties more time to recover.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, have shown early signs of stabilisation under Kemi Badenoch.
Sir John said the party had climbed to around 20 per cent, its strongest average position for some time, helped partly by a decline in support for Reform UK.
Some voters who moved away from the Conservatives towards Nigel Farage’s party appear to be returning, easing pressure on Badenoch.
However, Sir John stressed that the Conservatives still remain far from a position of strength.
“It’s still only 20 per cent. They’ve still got a very, very long way to go,” he said.
The central problem facing the new Prime Minister is the gap between parliamentary strength and electoral support.
Burnham inherits the machinery of government and a large Commons majority, but polling suggests Labour must rebuild its relationship with voters before facing the country again.
His early decisions — from scrapping unpopular policies to reshaping Labour’s economic message — will determine whether the party can transform a leadership change into a genuine recovery.
For now, Burnham enters No10 with a rare political contradiction:
A Prime Minister with enormous parliamentary power, but one of the weakest polling foundations ever recorded for a new occupant of Downing Street.
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