Dutch gas futures breach €97 a megawatt-hour as sharply reduced Gulf LNG deliveries, below-average storage levels and colder weather heighten fears of a winter energy crunch.
European gas prices have climbed to their highest level since 2022, reigniting concerns over the continent’s energy security as the escalating conflict in the Middle East threatens supplies ahead of winter.
Front-month natural gas futures at the Dutch TTF hub exceeded €97 ($109) per megawatt-hour on October 26, equivalent to roughly $1,140 per 1,000 cubic metres, according to Interfax-Ukraine. The price marks the first time the benchmark has reached that level since the energy crisis of 2022.
Electricity futures in France have also surged, breaking through €200 per megawatt-hour for the first time since January 2023, as rising gas costs feed into power markets.
The rally reflects mounting anxiety over liquefied natural gas supplies from the Persian Gulf. Before the conflict, countries in the region accounted for about a fifth of global LNG supply. Deliveries are now roughly five times lower than a year earlier, according to the report, tightening an already vulnerable market.
Europe is entering the colder months with less protection than usual against further disruption. Underground gas storage across the EU stood at 74.62 per cent on October 25, some 14.92 percentage points below the five-year average for the date.
As temperatures fall, some member states have already begun withdrawing gas from storage. A colder-than-expected winter or another interruption to supplies could intensify competition for available fuel, pushing prices higher and increasing pressure on households and industry.
The European Commission has urged member states to reduce gas and electricity consumption amid elevated energy costs and instability in global markets, underscoring the difficulty of shielding consumers from international price shocks.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has taken a separate step to expand potential gas exports. Its Cabinet of Ministers has authorised private producers to export volumes equivalent to as much as 15 per cent of their monthly output.
The move comes as European energy markets face renewed uncertainty over supply, storage and demand. With winter approaching, the latest price surge highlights how quickly geopolitical conflict can translate into higher energy costs across the continent.
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