Germany is at risk of being drawn into a violent conflict with Russia as Moscow intensifies what Berlin describes as an increasingly aggressive “shadow war” against European democracies.
Martin Jaeger, head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), told lawmakers that the confrontation with Moscow had entered a “new, more dangerous dimension”, as concerns grow over sabotage, espionage and other hostile activity across Europe.
“No other country currently poses such a direct, comprehensive and concrete threat to Germany,” Jaeger said during the annual public hearing of Germany’s intelligence chiefs.
The warning marks a stark assessment from one of Europe’s largest intelligence services as Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to reshape the continent’s security calculations.
“We did not seek this confrontation. Russia is forcing it upon us and sees us as a main adversary, because we refuse to accept its revisionist, expansionist policies and its war of aggression against Ukraine,” Jaeger said.
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He warned that Germany could increasingly find itself caught between Moscow’s campaign of pressure and its obligations to support Ukraine and defend European security.
“Germany is in danger of becoming embroiled in a violent conflict with Russia,” Jaeger said.
He pointed to the attempted attack in Leipzig as an example of the risks confronting Germany, referring to a drone found by a Ukrainian aircraft in August.
The remarks come as European governments increasingly warn that Russia’s confrontation with the West extends beyond conventional military operations in Ukraine.
For Berlin, the concern is that attacks below the threshold of open warfare could create a dangerous escalation cycle — particularly if infrastructure, transport networks or military-linked facilities become targets.
Germany is also one of Europe’s central security powers and a major supporter of Ukraine, increasing the strategic importance of any confrontation between Berlin and Moscow.
Jaeger’s warning therefore carries implications beyond Germany’s borders. A direct attack or serious escalation involving a NATO member could transform what has largely remained a confrontation fought through Ukraine, sanctions, cyber operations and covert activity into a much broader European security crisis.
His message to lawmakers was blunt; the confrontation with Russia is no longer a distant threat as it is moving closer to Germany — and becoming harder for Europe to contain.
Berlin is currently preparing to deepen military and intelligence support for Ukraine; the plans include sending thousands of attack drones and additional missiles for Ukraine’s Iris-T air defence systems this month, alongside a significant expansion of co-operation between German and Ukrainian intelligence agencies.
People familiar with the German government’s plans told Der Spiegel that strengthening Kyiv’s ability to strike Russian forces on the battlefield and targets deeper inside Russia was one component of Berlin’s response.
Germany’s intelligence services could also be given wider powers to counter hostile operations. Legislation expected to receive Bundestag backing would expand the range of active measures available to German agencies when responding to foreign attacks.
Under the proposed changes, employees of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, or BND, could receive broader authority to counter hostile cyber operations, including accessing adversaries’ computers and servers and deleting stolen information.
The agencies could also be permitted to interfere with hostile supply chains, including by replacing individual components in consignments bound for states regarded as adversaries.
Germany’s government has said its assessment was based on police investigations, intelligence findings and evidence recovered from the scene at Leipzig Airport.
The attribution has marked a sharp shift in Berlin’s public response to suspected Russian sabotage, espionage and other forms of hybrid activity.
“We are not at war, but we are a daily target of hybrid warfare,” German interior minister Alexander Dobrindt said.
Stefan Thumann, a German defence entrepreneur whose company Donaustahl supplies combat drones to Ukraine, has gone further in characterising the confrontation.
He said some Russian operations amounted to an “act of war controlled and coordinated here by the Russian armed forces”.
Speaking on a podcast operated by the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, Thumann said: “Germany and Russia are at war.”
Thumann has also said he is living under protection after authorities uncovered what he described as an alleged Russian plot to poison him.
Moscow’s public rhetoric has grown increasingly hostile in response.
Vladimir Solovyov, one of Russia’s most prominent state propagandists, has argued that modern Germany should no longer be treated as a legitimate unified state and called for the restoration of East Germany.
Solovyov said Russia should “demand the restoration of the GDR and simply sever all diplomatic relations”.
“There is no such country,” he added.
Jim Sciutto, CNN anchor and chief national security analyst, responded on X: “This is the same logic Russia used to invade Ukraine.”
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