October was brutal, but November could be considerably worse, while here in Ukraine, we haven’t even reached the worst of the winter weather, not even remotely.
Russia has continued attacking civilians throughout October while destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure; the Kremlin, at the same time, rejected President Zelenskyy’s proposal for a complete 60-day ceasefire that would allow Ukraine to organise presidential elections.
On 12 October, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed the proposal, insisting Moscow wanted a comprehensive peace agreement rather than a temporary ceasefire; Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov went further, arguing that Ukraine “did not deserve a two-month respite”.
On that decision, Russian missiles and drones continued to fall on Ukrainian cities, for all the Kremlin’s talk of peace, its actions offer little indication that ending the invasion is actually a priority, so, for all the diplomatic announcements, political backslapping and promises of peace, nothing has fundamentally changed much on the ground.
Here in Dnipro, the explosions continue, our electricity and water supplies remain vulnerable, and the prospect of another winter under Russian bombardment is hardly something to look forward to, yet we are being asked to believe peace is getting closer while the evidence outside our windows suggests otherwise, it’s actually getting worse.
On 29 October, a Russian drone struck a crowded railway platform in Dnipro, with 15 people reportedly killed- ordinary civilians waiting for a train, not soldiers preparing for battle- while Russian attacks continued on our energy infrastructure, having also left hundreds of thousands without electricity over the weekend, while I had travelled through that same station only hours before the massacre.
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A friend in America subsequently told me the attack was barely making the headlines there; apparently, Ukrainians being murdered while waiting for public transport struggle to compete with Washington’s latest political circus, the midterms.
Meanwhile, Russia’s own military losses are staggering, according to Ukraine’s General Staff, Russian forces suffered 2,500 personnel losses in a single day, bringing Ukraine’s cumulative estimate to approximately 1.59 million personnel losses since February 2022, I am obligated to say these are Ukrainian military estimates, not independently verified totals, but the scale of attrition is extraordinary.
For what, exactly?
The imaginary Nazis, the biological laboratories, or are we still pretending this was about protecting Russian speakers?
The Kremlin’s explanations have aged about as gracefully as milk left on a radiator.
Ukraine meanwhile, is taking the war increasingly deep into Russia, on 15 October, Ukrainian Neptune missiles reportedly struck Borisoglebsk Airfield, with satellite imagery assessments indicating four Su-34 fighter-bombers destroyed and two damaged. On 29 October, another two Su-34s were reportedly destroyed at Marinovka Airfield in Volgograd Oblast. Ukrainian strikes were also reported against aircraft at Khanskaya Airbase earlier in the month.
A published clip from October, showing one of the approaches into Dobropillia and the staggering losses for the Russian invader on just one of them. https://t.co/cpISsYbj2H pic.twitter.com/t5xqgXYciQ
— Shaun Pinner (@ShaunPinnerUA) November 2, 2026
According to Ukrainian defence publication Militarnyi, Russia suffered 11 irrecoverable fixed-wing aircraft losses and two Mi-8 helicopter losses during October, including accidents and other non-combat incidents, thirteen military aircraft in one month, with additional aircraft reportedly damaged.
Hardly the picture of an unstoppable military machine, while aircraft were only part of the story.
Ukrainian strikes reportedly hit the Kamensky Chemical Plant in Rostov Oblast, which manufactures solid rocket propellant, damaging production workshops. In Ufa, Bashkortostan, approximately 1,200 kilometres from Ukraine’s border, strikes targeted the Bashneft-Novoil and Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim refineries, facilities with a combined annual processing capacity of approximately 24 million tonnes of crude oil.
October also saw attacks on Russian ammunition facilities, military airfields and oil infrastructure, Ukraine is not simply retaliating, it’s systematically targeting the machinery that enables Russia to continue its invasion.
Yet while Ukrainian engineers and operators develop increasingly effective long-range capabilities, our access to essential military assistance and technology remains entangled in international politics, particularly decisions made in Washington, however, Ukrainians continue finding new ways to fight back while politicians elsewhere debate how much assistance they should receive, and under what conditions.
A perfect example came from Iryna Terekh, CEO of Ukrainian defence manufacturer Fire Point, who revealed to Reuters on 30 October that her company had developed technological workarounds allowing Ukrainian long-range strike systems to complete missions without relying on Starlink satellite connectivity.
This followed 10 days of restrictions on SpaceX services during October, which disrupted Ukrainian drone operations. Terekh explained that while Fire Point had overcome some of these limitations, its alternative systems currently delivered only 15–20% of the capability potentially available with full Starlink access over Russia.
It is another example of Ukrainian ingenuity overcoming technological restrictions, but also a warning about the dangers of relying on foreign-controlled systems for national defence.
And Terekh perhaps summed up the absurdity of the situation better than anyone:
“What we want is an alliance with America where the rules are known in advance so the question of whether we are allowed to defend ourselves is not reopened every few weeks depending on someone’s mood.”— Iryna Terekh, CEO of Fire Point, speaking to Reuters, 30 October 2026.
Then came Oleshky, where a rare humanitarian ceasefire allowed civilians to escape Russian occupation and desperately needed food, water and medicine to reach those who remained. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets, American First Lady Melania Trump and Pope Leo XIV were involved in efforts surrounding the operation.
Families were reunited, vulnerable civilians reached safety, and that deserves recognition, but let’s not lose sight of the glaring absurdity, with Russia’s invasion and occupation creating the humanitarian catastrophe in the first place.
Moscow then attempted to present itself as a humanitarian saviour, while the White House promoted the operation as a diplomatic achievement, a welcome evacuation became another contest for political credit, even as Russian attacks continued elsewhere.
Indeed, the Kremlin itself described the cooperation as an isolated event, not evidence of wider progress towards peace, that should give you the foresight and all you need to know on how the rest of this year will probably pan out, apparently, helping civilians escape the consequences of your own invasion is now something for which you expect applause.
So now, attention turns to America’s 3rd November midterm elections, with a change in congressional control that could increase scrutiny of the Trump administration’s Russia policy, but it will not immediately change decisions coming from the White House, but that’s only if he performs dismally.
My concern is that another domestic political battle will further distract from the reality here in Ukraine, as I discussed recently on my Substack with Meidas Defence Weekly with Ken Harbaugh and Bobby Jones, speaking live from Dnipro, explaining there is an extraordinary disconnect between the battle for political clout, diplomatic headlines and credit for supposedly bringing peace, with what we actually experience on the ground.
Not much has changed.
We still hear the explosions, we still lose electricity, water while burying our friends & family, and the temperatures have yet barely begun to fall.
I have seen nothing suggesting Ukrainians are losing their determination to resist, what concerns me is the determination of those who claim to support us.
November will test that determination, and the coming winter may test it even harder. Russia cannot simply talk its way out of responsibility for this war, nor the atrocities it continues to commit, regardless of how many diplomatic photographs are taken, handshakes exchanged or promises of peace made.
Because there can be no lasting peace without justice.
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