More than 1.1 million Russians travelled to Georgia, Armenia and Serbia between July and September, the highest quarterly total in 17 years, as fears of a fresh mobilisation prompted more people to consider leaving the country.
The surge coincided with mounting rumours that Vladimir Putin was preparing to send another wave of recruits to fight in Ukraine, raising fears among military-age men and their families that they could soon be caught up in the Kremlin’s war effort.
Data from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), cited by independent outlet Verstka, showed 1.13 million Russian citizens travelled to the three countries during the third quarter of 2026.
Georgia recorded the largest influx, with 660,300 arrivals — 43,300 more than in the same period last year, when the previous record was set. The figure was also 43 per cent higher than during Russia’s September 2022 mobilisation, when 461,200 Russians travelled there.
A further 402,300 Russians visited Armenia, up from 344,700 a year earlier. It was the highest quarterly figure recorded since 2010.
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Serbia received 64,800 Russian visitors, around 14,000 more than in the third quarter of 2025, eclipsing its previous record of 53,200 set in 2024.
The figures include all Russian citizens travelling to the three countries, regardless of their reasons for visiting. They do not establish how many left permanently or were specifically seeking to avoid military service.
But other indicators point to a renewed appetite for emigration. In July, searches on Russian search engine Yandex for ways to leave the country reached their highest level since early 2023, with particular interest in destinations that do not require visas.
Relocation agencies also reported a sharp increase in enquiries. The Relokats project said requests from Russians seeking to emigrate had nearly doubled, with many hoping to leave before September or October amid fears of being sent to the front.
Agents in Georgia, Armenia and Serbia reported a surge in demand for long-term rentals from late July, according to independent outlet Meduza. More than 113,000 Russians crossed into Georgia through the Verkhny Lars checkpoint in a single week at the end of August, while demand for long-term apartments in Tbilisi and Yerevan reportedly rose by as much as 30 per cent year on year.
The renewed exodus comes as Moscow faces mounting challenges meeting its military recruitment targets without resorting to another publicly announced mobilisation.
Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service said Russia had recruited about 195,000 contract soldiers by mid-July, falling short of its target of 204,500 for the first half of 2026. Moscow’s annual recruitment goal stands at 409,000.
The agency estimated that Russia had lost 196,700 military personnel during 2026 by that point, including 115,300 irrecoverable losses and 80,400 wounded. These figures have not been independently verified.
Independent Russian outlet Verstka has also reported a nationwide decline in recruitment despite increasingly generous financial incentives. Enlistment in Moscow was down by roughly a third in spring compared with the same period in 2025.
The Kremlin has sought to avoid the political fallout of another mass mobilisation by relying on contract recruitment and pressuring regional authorities to meet enlistment quotas.
But Ukrainian intelligence has warned that Moscow is preparing plans to mobilise an additional 600,000 people across 2026 and 2027, with 300,000 targeted each year.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said in late July that Putin was considering recruiting between 300,000 and 500,000 additional troops. On August 11, he said Ukrainian intelligence had obtained Russian documents indicating preparations for a rapid mobilisation of more than 100,000 people following September’s State Duma elections.
Further concerns emerged in September, when Russians summoned to enlistment offices to update their registration details reportedly found mobilisation orders inserted into their military identification documents.
The travel figures do not prove a mass flight from conscription. But, alongside rising emigration enquiries and reports of recruitment difficulties, they suggest the Kremlin’s war is creating fresh pressure on Russians weighing whether to stay or leave.
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