Russia is rapidly expanding military bases along its border with NATO, raising fears the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for future confrontation once the war in Ukraine ends, according to new intelligence assessments.
Satellite images show Moscow constructing new military facilities and enlarging existing bases close to Finland and the Baltic states, with experts warning the build-up is designed to give Russia the ability to rapidly project forces against NATO.
The findings have prompted fresh calls for Britain and its allies to accelerate defence spending and ensure they are prepared to deter – or, if necessary, defeat – any future Russian aggression.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), satellite imagery analysed by Norwegian, Swedish and Danish broadcasters, alongside Baltic media, shows extensive construction work taking place along Russia’s north-western frontier.
The military think tank said the developments point to preparations for a much larger permanent force facing NATO once active combat operations in Ukraine eventually come to an end.
Danish broadcaster DR reported that intelligence officials and senior military officers believe Russian forces are already “engaging in preparation for conflict”.
Former Finnish military intelligence officer Marko Eklund said Moscow intends to station around 115,000 troops along its northern NATO frontier after the Ukraine war.
He said Russia has begun constructing a major new base at Novaya Vilza, near Petrozavodsk, capable of housing between 4,000 and 6,000 personnel.
Intelligence officers told the Danish media outlet DR that the Russian armed forces are “engaging in preparation for conflict” and Eklund warned the Kremlin is preparing to have around 115,000 troops stationed at the northern NATO border once the war ends.
Meanwhile, Finnish Army commander Lieutenant General Pasi Välimäki told Swedish broadcaster SVT that Helsinki expects Russia to deploy around 80,000 soldiers opposite Finland’s border.
The ISW said Russian forces are also repositioning units into the newly recreated Leningrad Military District.
The ISW said: “A source reporting on the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed that the Russian command is relocating unspecified elements of the 44th Army Corps (Leningrad Military District [LMD]), except for the command post, to the Republic of Karelia.
“The source claimed that the elements of the command post are currently stationed in Luga, Leningrad Oblast, and have been waiting to move to Petrozavodsk when Russia finishes constructing the bases.”
The think tank also highlighted claims by a Kremlin-linked military blogger that Russia is modernising at least 19 barracks, storage sites and military facilities in Pechenga, just 11 kilometres from the Finnish border on the strategically important Kola Peninsula.
Elsewhere, Moscow is reportedly expanding its naval infantry facilities, armoured vehicle depots and landing craft fleet around Baltiysk in the heavily militarised Kaliningrad enclave.
The ISW believes the expansion is intended to ensure Russia can quickly shift combat forces towards NATO after fighting in Ukraine subsides.
It said: “Russia is establishing these bases to support potential future military actions against NATO.”
However, analysts stressed that an attack remains unlikely in the near term, with the vast majority of Russia’s available combat power still committed to operations in Ukraine.
The report added that once the conflict ends, these new bases would significantly improve Russia’s ability to mobilise and deploy forces along NATO’s northern frontier at short notice.
The military build-up comes as British politicians increasingly warn that Russia could pose a direct threat to NATO within years rather than decades.
Speaking last week, Defence Committee chairman Tan Dhesi MP said Britain must urgently strengthen its armed forces.
He said: “Given the rising threat level, including warnings from the Prime Minister that NATO needs to be ready for an attack by Russia by 2030, the UK needs to properly invest in our defence and meet the moment.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer last week unveiled the Government’s new Defence Investment Plan, promising an additional £15 billion for Britain’s armed forces.
The strategy aims to modernise the military, expand drone capabilities and strengthen Britain’s readiness against evolving threats from Russia.
However, questions remain over how the package will be funded.
The Government has yet to explain where £4.7 billion of the spending will come from, with a decision expected in the Autumn Budget.
As Russia continues to reinforce its military infrastructure along NATO’s eastern frontier, defence experts argue Britain and its allies have little time to ensure they can respond if the strategic balance shifts once the war in Ukraine eventually comes to an end.
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