The Pentagon is preparing a range of options for reshaping the US military presence in Europe, prompting concern among NATO allies that Washington could significantly reduce a force of about 80,000 troops stationed on the continent.
A review of the deployment is due to be completed by November 6, with the Pentagon expected to produce at least four detailed scenarios covering the future size and distribution of US forces, according to Reuters.
The exercise is intended to give Washington a clearer assessment of the strategic and operational consequences of different force levels, rather than committing in advance to a particular outcome.
“We want to be able to talk through the pros and cons of a variety of different force levels or dispositions,” a senior US Department of Defense official told Reuters.
The review has nevertheless unsettled European capitals. Some NATO representatives have privately expressed concern that a decision to reduce the US contingent may already have been taken, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Elbridge Colby, the US deputy secretary of defence for policy, is expected to discuss the options with NATO ambassadors in Brussels as allies seek greater clarity over Washington’s intentions.
The Pentagon has indicated that the US wants to move towards a more limited supporting role in European security while requiring European allies to assume greater responsibility for their own defence.
The review also reflects President Donald Trump’s growing frustration with some NATO members over defence spending and other aspects of alliance policy.
“President Trump has also been quite rightly and clearly frustrated with certain allies’ behavior in recent months. So there’s clearly at least some demand signal to have options that would show us (downgrading) our force levels in Europe,” a US Department of Defense official said on condition of anonymity.
The Pentagon’s assessment will extend beyond troop numbers. Its guidelines examine US access to allied territory, military facilities and airspace, as well as capabilities in space and cyberspace.
Intelligence assets and infrastructure required to deploy US forces globally will also be assessed, alongside the ability of European allies to meet their NATO defence-spending commitments and address capability gaps identified under the NATO Force Model.
Washington has separately circulated a questionnaire to NATO members seeking information on defence spending, procurement strategies and restrictions affecting US access, deployments and overflight rights.
Allies are expected to submit their responses by Friday. The proposed options are then due to be examined at the Pentagon by September 18, with the commander of US forces in Europe taking part.
The review comes as European governments accelerate efforts to strengthen their own military capabilities amid uncertainty over the long-term US commitment to European security.
European NATO members have already sought to compensate for many of the capabilities that Washington has indicated it could remove from its European plans, according to analysis cited by RBC-Ukraine.
But replacing the full range of US military assets would be a considerably more complex task, particularly in areas such as intelligence, logistics, strategic mobility, air defence and high-end military capabilities.
For European allies, the Pentagon review therefore represents more than an administrative assessment of force levels. It could become a test of whether Washington intends to remain the central military power within NATO’s European security architecture — or accelerate a shift towards a more self-reliant European alliance.
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