Andy Burnham is facing an early electoral test of his strategy for restoring Labour’s dominance over the Greens, with a by-election in Sir Keir Starmer’s former constituency being viewed by allies as a potential rehearsal for a general election.
The contest in Holborn and St Pancras, due to take place next month, will pit Labour against Green leader Zack Polanski after Starmer resigned from Parliament at the start of September. The former prime minister had previously pledged to remain an MP after leaving Downing Street.
The result could carry significance beyond the safe Labour seat itself. If Burnham secures the level of support his advisers are seeking, the prime minister could gain confidence to bring forward the scheduled 2029 general election.
Burnham’s advisers are also treating the contest as an early test of whether his arrival in Downing Street has reversed the flow of Labour support towards the Greens.
“Because Keir’s seat was a target and Polanski is running in it, this gives the PM a perfect opportunity to see if the Green threat has gone with a change of leader,” a Labour insider told The Independent.
“We are seeing people come back [from the Greens] to Labour. Under Keir, there was no doubt that we were losing lots of supporters and party members to the Greens.”
The insider added that a Labour victory over Polanski would demonstrate that the party was “in good shape to fight a general election”.
The contest comes against the backdrop of a sustained challenge from the Greens among progressive voters during Starmer’s premiership. Labour suffered losses in areas that had traditionally formed part of its electoral base, as disillusioned supporters moved towards the Greens and other parties.
The shift was particularly evident in former Labour strongholds, including Gorton and Denton, where the party faced growing pressure from the Greens.
Burnham’s political positioning is likely to be central to Labour’s attempt to reverse that trend. The prime minister, who is associated with the party’s soft-left faction, has sought to broaden Labour’s appeal while rebuilding support among voters who moved away during Starmer’s leadership.
Labour strategists are hoping that Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, the party’s candidate, can help consolidate support and prevent the Greens from turning the by-election into a wider challenge to Burnham’s authority.
Holborn and St Pancras would ordinarily offer Labour a relatively secure base, making the contest an imperfect measure of national sentiment. But the presence of Polanski, the Greens’ newly installed leader, gives the result added political weight.
For Burnham, a strong Labour performance would provide an early indication that the party can reclaim voters lost on its left flank — and potentially strengthen the argument for seeking an earlier mandate from the country.
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