Sir Keir Starmer is braced for a devastating local election setback after new polling suggested Labour could suffer its worst performance in London for decades, with insurgent parties poised to make historic gains.
A YouGov model indicates Labour is on course to secure the highest vote share in just 15 councils across the capital — six fewer than in 2022 — in what would mark the party’s weakest showing in almost 50 years.
The projections deal a fresh blow to the Prime Minister as he grapples with mounting internal dissent and a deepening political crisis over the Mandelson vetting scandal.
The poll points to a dramatic reshaping of London’s political map, with Zack Polanski’s Greens projected to top the vote in four Labour-held boroughs: Hackney, Lambeth, Lewisham and Waltham Forest.
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is forecast to secure the highest vote share in three boroughs, including a potential breakthrough in Barking and Dagenham — a symbolic Labour stronghold that has remained under majority control since the 1960s.
Reform is also projected to take Havering and mount a serious challenge in Bexley, coming within striking distance of the Conservatives.
YouGov's London council election MRP forecasts breakthrough for the Greens and Reform UK in the capital, but with close races in many boroughs
# of boroughs where party has highest vote share, central projection
Lab: 15 (-6 from 2022)
Con: 5 (-1)
Grn: 4 (+4)
LD: 4 (+1)
Ref: 3… pic.twitter.com/3ofLUWp3LR— YouGov (@YouGov) April 22, 2026
The projections would mark an unprecedented moment for both Reform and the Greens, neither of which has previously topped the poll in any London council.
YouGov said: “Across the whole of London, our model paints a highly fragmented picture, with all five of England’s largest parties registering double digit vote shares in our central projections.
“While Labour are expected to top the London ballot once more, this will be off only around a quarter of the city-wide vote (26%), down a full sixteen points since the 2022 London elections, with the Conservatives dropping nine points to 17%.
“Mirroring the national picture, the biggest beneficiaries of this decline will be the Greens and Reform UK, though in the capital it is the Greens of the two who are ahead, on 22% of the vote, up ten points since 2022.
“Reform UK, who won close to 0% of the vote last time, are now forecast to win a 14% share in our model’s central estimates.”
Labour’s difficulties extend beyond the capital. Separate modelling by More in Common suggests the party could lose between 1,597 and 1,738 council seats nationwide, representing a collapse in local government support.
Senior Cabinet figures, including Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband and John Healey, are also said to be at risk of losing their seats at the next general election, according to separate polling.
Other senior figures, including Peter Kyle and Hilary Benn, face challenges from Green candidates, highlighting the growing fragmentation of the political landscape.
The surge in support for smaller parties follows a breakthrough by the Greens in the Gorton and Denton by-election, where candidate Hannah Spencer secured the party’s first-ever parliamentary by-election victory — a result Polanski hailed as the start of a “tidal wave”.
For Labour, the projections underscore a rapidly deteriorating political picture, with the party under pressure from both left and right as voter support fractures ahead of a crucial electoral test.
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