Zack Polanski has seen a significant decrease in his odds of becoming the next UK Prime Minister after the Green Party of England and Wales won the Gorton & Denton by-election in 2026.
Bookmakers now have Polanski at approximately 16/1, a dramatic change from the earlier odds of 50/1 recorded this year.
Market data indicates that Polanski was the fourth most backed candidate last week, attracting around 9% of all bets in the “next Prime Minister” market.
This support has placed him ahead of several well-known political figures, including Andy Burnham, who garnered about 4% of bets, and Wes Streeting, who received around 3%. Angela Rayner remains the bookmakers’ favourite at 3/1, while Rupert Lowe has drawn continued speculative interest at 8/1.
This surge in interest reflects a growing momentum for smaller parties following the Green Party’s breakthrough in the constituency. Analysts suggest that by-election surprises can often influence betting markets, even if they don’t immediately translate into national electoral shifts.
Next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer betting odds
| Next PM | Odds | Implied probability |
| Angela Rayner | 3/1 | 25% |
| Wes Streeting | 6/1 | 14% |
| Ed Miliband | 7/1 | 13% |
| Rupert Lowe | 8/1 | 11% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 10/1 | 9% |
| Zack Polanski | 16/1 | 6% |
| Andy Burnham | 16/1 | 6% |
| Yvette Cooper | 20/1 | 5% |
| John Healey | 20/1 | 5% |
| Kemi Badenoch | 25/1 | 4% |
Next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer betting split (last week)
| Next PM | Percentage of bets placed |
| Rupert Lowe | 36% |
| Angela Rayner | 14% |
| Nigel Farage | 13% |
| Zack Polanski | 9% |
| Andy Burnham | 4% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 4% |
| Wes Streeting | 3% |
| Ed Miliband | 3% |
Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers stated, “Zack Polanski’s next Prime Minister odds have been decimated over the last month.
The Green party leader is now 16/1 to replace Starmer and was the fourth most-backed candidate last week with 9% of bets placed. As Green continue to make waves following their statement Gorton & Denton win, it will be interesting to see if punters continue to get behind Polanski for PM.
Punters continue to rally behind Rupert Lowe with his odds being cut from 20/1 into 8/1 over the last week; the Restore Britain leader was the most backed contender last week with 36% of the betting.”
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