Poland’s prime minister has warned that Russia could seek to test NATO’s resolve with drone or missile strikes against countries supporting Ukraine, raising concerns that the war could increasingly spill beyond the battlefield.
Donald Tusk told parliament on Thursday that intelligence assessments pointed to possible Russian attacks against NATO states, including Poland.
He said Moscow could attempt to present any resulting damage as an accident, complicating decisions over whether the alliance should respond.
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The warning came after Poland scrambled military aircraft and temporarily closed airports following Russian attacks in western Ukraine close to its border. Warsaw has since increased airspace protection and rapid-response measures.
Tusk said: “We know he is plotting something bad. However, for us the most important task is to prepare for various scenarios.
“We will certainly not naively accept such messages that Russia has goodwill and will start behaving properly. There is no indication of this.”
He said intelligence from multiple sources was “very consistent and convincing”, while warning that Russia could seek to exploit uncertainty over whether an incursion was deliberate.
“There is a real risk that drones or other types of missiles could penetrate the territory of one or more countries on the eastern flank and even cause damage, while the official explanation will be that there was an accident.”
Tusk’s comments reflect growing concern among NATO members over Russian drone activity near the alliance’s eastern borders. Poland has reported a series of incidents close to its territory as Moscow has intensified attacks against western Ukraine.
The immediate concern is less about an announced Russian attack on Britain than the possibility that repeated incidents could create pressure on NATO’s collective-defence commitments. Tusk has argued that Moscow could use ostensibly accidental incursions to weaken political confidence in Article 5 and test whether member states would respond collectively.
The warnings come as NATO also presses European allies to accelerate defence investment. Secretary General Mark Rutte has called on Britain to establish a “credible path” of annual increases towards the alliance’s long-term spending target.
NATO’s own assessment is that European allies need to increase defence investment substantially as Russia rebuilds its military-industrial capacity. Rutte has said spending of roughly 3.5 per cent of GDP on core defence is required to meet the alliance’s capability targets.
Britain’s current government spending plans envisage defence expenditure reaching about 2.7 per cent of GDP by 2028-29, according to official figures, leaving a substantial gap between existing plans and the higher targets now being discussed within NATO.
The prospect of Russian missiles striking British territory would represent a far more serious escalation than the drone and reconnaissance incidents that have occurred around NATO’s eastern flank. But the intelligence warning issued by Warsaw does not establish that Russia has decided to attack the UK.
For European governments, the immediate challenge is therefore one of deterrence: strengthening air defences and military readiness while avoiding miscalculation that could turn repeated incursions into a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
As Russia increases its use of faster, jet-powered drones in western Ukraine, former British defence secretary Ben Wallace has described intercepting them before they cross into Nato airspace as “the next natural step”.
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