Intelligence warning to Marco Rubio raises alarm in Washington as American personnel are withdrawn from Saudi Arabia and staffing is reduced at four other diplomatic missions amid fears of a wider regional conflict.
US intelligence officials have warned that Iran has significantly intensified efforts to target American diplomats and government personnel overseas, with lethal plots reportedly reaching “advanced stages”, prompting Washington to widen security precautions across the Middle East.
The warning, contained in an October 23 memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, comes as the US reduces its diplomatic footprint in several countries and the prospect of renewed military confrontation with Tehran looms over the region. Axios obtained the memo, and US officials confirmed its authenticity to other news organisations.
“The lethal plotting efforts by the Iranians against US citizens have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries,” Clayton wrote, according to the reported contents of the document. He said intelligence gathered through various channels indicated that Iran had “substantially increased efforts to target US personnel”.
The memo does not identify specific individuals, name countries outside the Middle East where the alleged plots are under way, or describe the methods involved. Nor does it establish whether an attack is imminent. Its significance lies instead in the assessment of the threat’s seriousness and the intelligence chief’s warning that information about the alleged operations needs to reach a broader group of potentially vulnerable officials.
Clayton urged Rubio to make the intelligence available to more personnel than are currently authorised to receive it, offering to lower its classification as far as possible to facilitate wider circulation. The underlying information had already been shared with senior State Department officials, according to the reporting.
The request underscores a difficult balance for American officials, protecting sensitive intelligence sources and methods while ensuring that those potentially at risk have enough information to take precautions.
The warning comes amid a series of moves to reduce American staffing at diplomatic missions across the Middle East.
Earlier in the week, the State Department ordered family members and non-essential personnel to leave the US embassy in Riyadh and the American consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. On October 23, it announced staffing reductions at US embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan. Those four missions were placed under restricted operations, with the embassies remaining open and personnel not generally required to depart.
A US official said the adjustments reflected concerns about both Iranian plots and attacks by Yemen’s Houthi movement.
“We decided that due to the threat of Houthi attacks and Iranian terror plots we need to reduce our footprint and keep only essential staff,” the official said, according to the supplied account.
The distinction between the Saudi departures and the staffing reductions elsewhere is material. In Saudi Arabia, non-essential personnel and their families were ordered to leave; in the other four countries, the measures reduced the number of personnel operating at diplomatic posts without requiring a wholesale evacuation.
The State Department’s precautions reflect a regional security environment in which threats from Iran and allied armed groups increasingly overlap. The intelligence warning is one factor informing staffing decisions, US officials have said, rather than public confirmation that a specific attack is about to take place.
The alert also follows renewed Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi targets. On October 22, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement said it had struck military facilities and critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, including a target it identified as the Ministry of Defence building.
The claims add to concerns that the conflict could spread beyond direct exchanges involving Iran and the United States. The Houthis have previously targeted regional infrastructure, while American officials have cited the group’s threat alongside alleged Iranian plots when explaining changes to diplomatic staffing.
The immediate danger is not confined to the possibility of a direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran. Attacks on diplomatic personnel, regional military facilities or critical infrastructure could trigger retaliation and draw additional countries into an already volatile conflict.
Yet the intelligence memo provides no public detail about the alleged plots’ targets or operational plans. It therefore remains unclear how widely the threat extends beyond the locations where the United States has already adjusted its diplomatic presence.
The intelligence warning has emerged as the Trump administration weighs whether to resume military action against Iran or pursue a diplomatic arrangement.
President Donald Trump said at a rally in Florida on Friday that the United States could launch another operation against Iran unless Tehran agreed to a deal, according to Axios. Meanwhile, Israel has been pressing for more decisive action, although the supplied account says Washington has not yet agreed to that course.
The prospect of renewed strikes creates a further layer of uncertainty. Any escalation could expose American personnel and regional partners to retaliation, while a prolonged standoff would leave diplomatic missions operating under heightened security restrictions.
For Rubio and other senior officials, the immediate challenge is to ensure that the threat information reaches those who need it without compromising the intelligence behind the warning. For Washington more broadly, the episode highlights the increasingly difficult task of maintaining a regional diplomatic presence while preparing for the possibility of further conflict.
The memo’s language is stark, but its limits are equally important: US intelligence says the alleged plots have advanced significantly, yet the public document identifies neither their intended targets nor a timetable for any attack. What is already clear is that the warning has become part of the security calculations shaping America’s diplomatic posture across the Middle East.
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