Reform UK has surged into second place in the race for London mayor, putting Laila Cunningham on course for a run-off against Labour and turning the Conservatives into an increasingly marginal force in the capital.
A Savanta poll for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London puts Labour on 33 per cent, ahead of Reform on 20 per cent and the Conservatives on 18 per cent. The Greens are on 14 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 10 per cent.
The figures mark a significant shift in the political balance ahead of the 2028 mayoral election. Reform’s advance would be enough to push the Conservatives out of the final two, leaving the party facing the prospect of having no candidate in the run-off for City Hall.
The survey was conducted among 1,036 Londoners between August 10 and 17, GB News reported.
Under the capital’s supplementary voting system, the result would currently produce a Labour-Reform contest in the second round, with the preferences of voters whose candidates were eliminated then helping determine the winner.
That does not mean Ms Cunningham is on course to win City Hall. Labour retains a commanding 13-point lead, while the transfer of second preferences could still leave its candidate comfortably ahead.
But the poll nevertheless represents a striking warning to the Conservatives, who have traditionally been Labour’s principal rival in London.
Ms Cunningham became Reform’s candidate for the 2028 mayoral contest after defecting from the Conservatives. Her campaign has sought to make crime, policing and the state of London central issues in the contest. She has described herself as a candidate prepared to take a more confrontational approach to crime and has pledged to scrap ULEZ if elected.
Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British politics at Queen Mary University, cautioned that the race remained highly fluid, the Standard reported.
“These results demonstrate that a lot could change before the next mayoral election as we await a final decision by Sadiq Khan on whether he will be the Labour candidate,” he said.
“Khan is significantly outperforming his own party’s national leadership so it cannot be guaranteed that a different Labour candidate would have such a comfortable lead.”
That question hangs over the entire contest. Sir Sadiq Khan has not ruled out seeking a historic fourth term, but has said he will make a decision next year.
“After discussing it with my wife and family, I’ll make a decision next year. My tank is full, I’m still fizzing with ideas,” he told the Telegraph.
The poll therefore captures a race in which the identities of the eventual candidates remain uncertain, but where Reform has already established itself as a serious challenger.
For the Conservatives, the danger is more immediate. Reform’s 20 per cent support is now two points ahead of the Tory vote, suggesting that the party could be squeezed from both sides as Reform expands its appeal among voters who previously backed the Conservatives.
Earlier polling had already shown Reform making substantial gains in London, particularly outside the capital’s inner boroughs.
The result also gives Mr Farage a potentially valuable platform in a city where his party has historically struggled to translate national support into political power.
If the numbers hold, the 2028 mayoral contest would no longer be a conventional Labour-Conservative battle. It would become a test of whether Reform can turn its national insurgency into control of Britain’s most powerful elected metropolitan office.
For now, Labour remains the clear favourite. But the more immediate political shock is that the Conservatives have been pushed into third — and Reform is now sitting in the seat traditionally occupied by Labour’s main challenger.
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