Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has threatened an immediate and potentially far-reaching military response to any renewed attacks, as Washington expands its naval presence in the Middle East and the US Army rehearses procedures for managing large numbers of battlefield deaths.
Escalating signals from Tehran and Washington have exposed the gulf between diplomatic assurances that the conflict may soon end and preparations for a confrontation that could become far more destructive.
In a written statement, Khamenei ordered an “immediate, impactful, and geographically unrestricted response” to enemy threats. He said Iran would determine the timing and terms of ending any new conflict if its adversaries resumed “military or terrorist attacks”.
The statement, issued after Tehran accused the US of striking two fishing boats near Qeshm Island, leaving two fishermen missing and one wounded, also called for an overhaul of Iran’s military target list. US and Israeli “physical and non-physical” assets were to be brought within the reach of Iranian forces, while production of ammunition and weapons for reconnaissance, support and combat operations should be increased.
Khamenei has not appeared in public since the outbreak of the war, issuing his latest intervention in writing as negotiations struggle to gain traction.
An interim agreement reached in June failed to secure a lasting ceasefire or restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies. Tehran has since proposed reopening the disrupted waterway within seven days in exchange for Washington lifting its blockade of Iranian ports.
Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday to revive negotiations. But the two sides remain divided over sequencing: Washington wants nuclear issues addressed, while Iran is pressing for relief from the blockade and oil sanctions.
US President Donald Trump has nevertheless insisted that the war will end soon. Speaking to Kansas City radio station KCMO on Friday, ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, he said: “It’s going to get wrapped up soon.”
He added: “We need a guarantee there’ll never be a nuclear weapon.”
Trump has said the US would not strike Iran before the elections, but offered no explanation of how a settlement might be achieved.
The administration’s military posture presents a more complicated picture. Washington has reinforced its regional deployment with a third aircraft carrier, in what reports have described as the largest US naval build-up in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit are expected to arrive by late November, joining forces already operating in the region. The deployment increases Washington’s capacity to sustain operations even as the president signals a preference for bringing the conflict to a close.
Further questions about the Pentagon’s assessment of the risks have emerged from an unusual Army exercise in North Carolina.
Under Phase II of Operation Dragon Covenant, troops are rehearsing the recovery, identification and burial of large numbers of military personnel killed in a high-intensity conflict. The exercise is described as one of the biggest of its kind in decades.
Sergeant First Class Delbert Ruede told Army Times that the drills were intended to identify weaknesses before they became critical.
“This exercise allowed us to take a critical look at how we respect, honor, and systematically manage our fallen in a high-intensity conflict,” he said.
“If we went to war tomorrow, we would be making this up as we went along. What we are doing here is taking a scientific, field-tested approach so that we can maintain positive control and respectfully care for our fallen.”
The exercise does not establish that Washington expects mass casualties or has decided to widen the war. It does, however, underline the scale of contingency planning taking place as the conflict remains unresolved.
With Tehran threatening retaliation, shipping negotiations stalled and American forces continuing to assemble, Trump’s promise that the war will be “wrapped up soon” faces an increasingly difficult test.
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