The Budget last week set Britain on course for the heaviest tax burden in its modern history, and the people with the most choices are already making them.
Tax is forecast to take 37.9% of national income in 2027/28, beating a record set in 1948/49, when the country was still settling its war debts. The Office for Budget Responsibility sees it climbing further still, to 38.6% by 2031/32.
Every Budget since 2024 has added another layer. Dividend tax rates rose by two percentage points in April 2026, to 10.75% for basic rate and 35.75% for higher rate taxpayers.
Inheritance tax relief on family businesses and farmland was capped at £1 million from the same month. A council tax surcharge on homes worth £2 million or more arrives in 2028.
From April 2027, unused pension pots fall into the inheritance tax net. The Chancellor has now made the planned rises on savings and property income steeper too.
Then there’s the quiet squeeze. Income tax thresholds stay frozen until 2031, pulling more earners into higher bands every time wages rise.
Wealthy families look at all this and see a pattern. A single tax rise rarely moves anyone. A decade of them, with no end in sight, changes where people choose to live, invest and build.
Britain’s finances lean heavily on a small group. Roughly 367,000 people, the top 1% of income taxpayers, pay more than a quarter of all income tax. They also happen to be the most internationally mobile people in the country.
When even a fraction of them go, the hole in the public finances is real, and everyone who stays ends up helping to fill it.
The evidence keeps stacking up. Analysis of Companies House filings shows 5,938 business owners moved abroad between January 2024 and early 2026, with tech founders the largest single group.
Even after counting arrivals, Britain suffered a net loss of 2,758 entrepreneurs.
Wealth migration analysts estimate the UK lost a net 16,500 millionaires in 2025, taking around $91.8 billion of investable wealth with them.
Behind each of those numbers sits a company that might have hired here, invested here or floated here.
The conversations we have with families have changed noticeably. A couple of years ago, the question was whether leaving made sense.
Today it’s where to go, how quickly, and how to move assets efficiently. Younger entrepreneurs with capital-light businesses are moving fastest, because very little ties them down.
The wider economy makes the problem harder to solve. The OBR expects real household disposable incomes to fall and has pencilled in higher interest rates. A sluggish economy can’t carry a record tax take on its own.
When investors and employers leave, the tax base narrows, the next Budget reaches for more, and the cycle turns again. Rival countries have spotted the opportunity. Italy, Switzerland and the UAE have all built regimes designed to attract exactly the people Britain is pushing away. They’d be foolish to do anything else.
Yet none of this has to be permanent. Britain still holds advantages most countries would envy. It has trusted courts and contract law, English as the language of global business, a time zone that bridges Asia and the Americas, world-class universities, and one of the deepest pools of financial expertise anywhere on the planet.
Capital has no loyalty, and that works in both directions. Money that leaves can return quickly once the terms improve. A government offering stability, fewer surprises and a credible path to lower taxes would find wealthy families and entrepreneurs ready to come back, and to bring their businesses with them.
Until then, the outflow is likely to keep going for years. The encouraging part is how achievable the fix is, for whichever politicians are bold enough to grab it.
Leave a Comment