Labour’s prison early-release policy could be followed by almost 90,000 additional recorded offences before the end of the parliament, according to Conservative analysis that will intensify pressure on Prime Minister Andy Burnham over the government’s approach to overcrowded jails.
The Conservatives estimate that the policy could be associated with almost 36,000 thefts, nearly 1,800 violent offences and about 500 sexual offences by 2029. Their analysis also projects roughly 7,000 drug offences, 1,500 weapons offences and up to 3,000 public-order offences.
The figures come as Downing Street continues to examine how it might prevent the early release of the killers of police officer Andrew Harper, Albert Bowers and Jessie Cole, without exacerbating the capacity crisis that has already forced ministers to release prisoners before the end of their sentences.
Nick Timothy, the Conservative shadow justice secretary, said the policy risked transferring the consequences of overcrowded prisons from the state to communities.
“Labour’s early release scheme is still set to let thousands of dangerous criminals out early,” he told the Daily Mail, warning that communities would see offenders returned to the streets prematurely.
The political dilemma is increasingly stark. Ministers face pressure to keep serious offenders behind bars while the prison estate remains close to capacity. Yet tightening eligibility for early release risks leaving the government without sufficient space for new offenders entering the system.
The dispute over Harper’s killers has exposed the wider problem. Attempts to create an exemption for people convicted of killing emergency workers have reportedly faced concerns over potential legal challenges, leaving ministers searching for alternatives.
For Labour, the political risk extends beyond the immediate controversy. Any rise in recorded crime associated with released prisoners would provide the opposition with a powerful weapon ahead of the next election, particularly if voters perceive the government as prioritising prison capacity over public safety.
A Ministry of Justice spokesman said: “This is highly speculative and an inaccurate method of calculating the impact of sentencing reforms.
“Without them, we risk prisons reaching capacity and collapsing. If that happened, police could not make arrests, courts could not remand offenders, and there would be unchecked criminality on our streets.
“The Sentencing Act is restoring order to a prison system left on the brink of collapse, while our record £700million investment in probation and community punishment ensures staff have the resources… needed to manage offenders safely in the community.”
The Conservatives’ figures are estimates rather than a forecast of crimes that will necessarily occur, and the precise relationship between early release and future offending remains contested.
But the numbers underline the scale of the government’s predicament: Britain’s prison crisis is no longer confined to overcrowded cells. It is becoming a political battle over who bears the cost when the prison gates open.
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