The news is exhausting, but something increasingly strange is happening with Ukraine, the biggest land war in Europe since the Second World War is slowly disappearing from prime-time news.
The war certainly hasn’t disappeared here, as Russia continues launching missiles and drones against Ukrainian cities, energy infrastructure and civilian targets, while the battlefield remains intensely active. On September 17 alone, Russian attacks struck eight Ukrainian regions and wounded more than 20 people, including civilians in Kyiv, Odesa and Zaporizhzhia.
But behind the images of burning buildings and damaged homes, another story is developing: Ukraine is quietly delivering some extremely uncomfortable news to Moscow.
One of the most important developments is around Lyman in northern Donetsk Oblast.
Ukraine has now publicly confirmed Operation Vivaldi, a counteroffensive by the Third Army Corps against the Russian salient northwest of Lyman.
Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi says Ukrainian forces have cleared approximately 75 square kilometres of Russian infiltration and recaptured another 10 square kilometres, including regaining control of Serednie.
This is significant because Lyman forms part of Russia’s wider effort to pressure Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Ukraine’s remaining defensive belt in Donetsk.
💥🔥 Explosions and secondary detonations reported through the night following an attack on an airfield in Russia’s Rostov region. The full extent of the damage remains unclear. pic.twitter.com/lVD1n7Cbja
— Shaun Pinner (@ShaunPinnerUA) September 17, 2026
Before Ukrainian troops began pushing forward, Russian logistics had been systematically attacked, Fuel, ammunition, communications and command infrastructure were targeted deep behind the frontline.
The Institute for the Study of War assesses that the operation has disrupted Russia’s attempt to conduct a wider encirclement of Ukraine’s defensive “Fortress Belt.”
That is what shaping a battlefield looks like, destroy or disrupt the machinery supporting an army, force it farther from the frontline, and eventually opportunities appear on the ground.
The price Russia continues paying is extraordinary.
On September 17, Ukraine’s General Staff estimated Russian personnel losses at 1,960 in a single day, alongside 43 artillery systems, seven multiple-launch rocket systems and 1,439 operational-tactical UAVs.
This morning brought another 1,420 estimated personnel losses, taking Ukraine’s running total since February 2022 to approximately 1,514,910 killed and wounded. Russia has therefore suffered an estimated 3,380 casualties in just two days. Under any normal military standard, losses on that scale would be regarded as catastrophic, and is, without doubt an extraordinary attritional rate.
However, British military assessments also demonstrate the enormous scale involved. UK Chief of the Defence Staff Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton recently said British intelligence assesses that more than 500,000 Russian troops have been killed, with total casualties around 1.5 million, while an independent investigation by BBC Russian and Mediazona has now verified 248,800 Russian military deaths by name.
Russia can still recruit and regenerate forces, but losses on this scale constantly create demands for replacements, training, equipment and money.
And Ukraine is simultaneously attacking the infrastructure supporting those forces.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing inside Luhansk Oblast.
Even Russian military maps now acknowledge Ukrainian-controlled territory there.
Russia does not fully control a single one of the four Ukrainian oblasts Putin illegally claims as Russian territory.
Read my full… https://t.co/VPbfOXMZT5 pic.twitter.com/kAVGnP94EL
— Shaun Pinner (@ShaunPinnerUA) September 17, 2026
Ukraine has also increased pressure far beyond the immediate frontline with a Ukrainian strike against the Rostov-on-Don Tsentralnyi military airfield reportedly destroyed two An-26 transport aircraft, an An-12 and three helicopters.
At almost the same time, Ukraine struck the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl, one of Russia’s largest.
The attack reportedly forced the refinery to halt crude processing after damage to its AVT-3 unit, responsible for roughly 40% of the plant’s processing capacity. Another major unit was already under repair following an earlier drone strike.
Senior Russian commanders are also being reached.
Ukraine says Major General Anton Grunis, commander of Russia’s 4th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, was killed in a drone strike on September 12. Russian commander Apti Alaudinov subsequently acknowledged his death.
Grunis had recently received Russia’s highest state honour after briefing Vladimir Putin about his brigade’s operations around Kostiantynivka.
Yet Kostiantynivka had not fallen.
That perhaps summarises Russia’s current problem better than anything, with General Grunis dying roughly two weeks later.
That’s what you get for lying, your pants on fire. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/nMASIOn4CO
— Shaun Pinner (@ShaunPinnerUA) September 16, 2026
Moscow continues projecting confidence and announcing progress, but underneath the propaganda, Russia is burning through manpower and equipment while Ukraine attacks its commanders, logistics, aircraft and fuel infrastructure and, in several important sectors, takes ground back.
None of this means Russia is beaten.
But it certainly does not look like an army able to impose its will on the battlefield without paying an increasingly extraordinary price.
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