While Russia has intensified long-range attacks on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure, Ukrainian forces appear to have regained significant ground around Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, challenging Moscow’s recent battlefield momentum.
The Institute for the Study of War has tracked Ukrainian counterattacks in the area and assessed that available mapping may understate the extent of Kyiv’s gains, partly because relatively little visual evidence has emerged from the operation.
Russian military bloggers have also acknowledged Ukrainian counterattacks and withdrawals from some forward positions around Lyman, while criticising what they describe as inaccurate battlefield reporting within Russia’s military command structure.
The developments are significant after Russian forces maintained the initiative across much of 2024 and 2025, advancing gradually in several sectors despite heavy personnel and equipment losses.
Ukraine’s operations around Lyman suggest those gains are neither inevitable nor necessarily permanent.
Russia’s “beautiful reports” problem
More damaging for Moscow may be the increasingly public criticism from Russia’s own pro-war information space.
Russian military bloggers have complained about so-called “beautiful reports” — overly optimistic battlefield assessments in which commanders exaggerate advances or announce settlements and positions as captured before Russian troops have established effective control.
The problem is not merely reputational. Inaccurate battlefield reporting can have direct operational consequences, according to previous ISW assessments.
Russian forces may be unable to request strikes against positions officially reported as captured, while neighbouring formations can plan operations on the basis of an inaccurate understanding of the frontline.
The disconnect was particularly visible around Sviatohirsk.
MORE: Russian milbloggers claimed on September 9 that the situation in the Lyman direction is increasingly deteriorating for Russian forces and that Russian forces had to withdraw from unspecified forward positions in the area. ⬇️
A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian… https://t.co/mnDL9eYALZ pic.twitter.com/N61DFnQi9d
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) September 10, 2026
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russian forces controlled the town, but Andrii Biletskyi, commander of Ukraine’s Third Army Corps, subsequently appeared in a video filmed openly in central Sviatohirsk, with its famous monastery visible behind him.
Biletskyi said Ukraine’s 60th Mechanized Brigade remained in control and described Sviatohirsk as effectively part of Ukraine’s rear area.
It is difficult to establish independently whether inaccurate battlefield information is reaching the Kremlin or whether Moscow is deliberately presenting an exaggerated picture of Russian progress.
Either possibility points to a widening gap between Russia’s public narrative and events on parts of the battlefield.
Russia continues to apply enormous pressure
The developments around Lyman should not be interpreted as evidence that Ukraine is suddenly winning the war.
Kyiv continues to face severe manpower constraints, while Russian forces remain on the offensive across multiple sectors. Moscow also retains a substantial capacity to launch missiles, guided bombs and increasingly sophisticated drones against Ukrainian targets.
The intensity of combat remains extraordinary.
Ukraine’s General Staff reported 1,520 Russian personnel casualties in its September 10 assessment, taking its estimate of Russian military losses since February 2022 above 1.5mn.
During the preceding reporting period, Ukrainian authorities recorded 277 combat engagements, 91 Russian air strikes, 331 guided aerial bombs, 10,913 kamikaze drone attacks and 2,117 shelling attacks.
Another 1,520 Russians shwacked, the equivalent of almost three battalions in a single day, as Putin’s eagerness to wipe out an entire generation of Russians only grows. pic.twitter.com/mshZkgvb4o
— Shaun Pinner (@ShaunPinnerUA) September 10, 2026
The figures are Ukrainian military estimates and cannot all be independently verified, but they illustrate the scale of continuing operations.
Russia’s growing threat to civilians
At the same time, Moscow’s ability to strike Ukrainian cities continues to evolve.
Pavlohrad was struck in daylight on Thursday near the Gulliver shopping centre, with the reported toll reaching seven people killed and 76 injured.
Dnipro was also attacked, killing two people at a sunflower oil production facility owned by US agribusiness group Bunge. Another strike reportedly set food warehouses ablaze.
Ukraine remains under severe military pressure. But Russia is also paying heavily for relatively slow territorial progress, while Kyiv has demonstrated around Lyman that it retains the ability to plan and execute counterattacks.
Russia may therefore be becoming increasingly dangerous to Ukrainian civilians without necessarily becoming more successful on the battlefield.
Those are two very different measures of the war — and increasingly, they should not be confused.
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