Russia’s military spending could reach almost $200bn this year after the Kremlin sharply increased its war budget, exposing the growing financial burden of the conflict even as US President Donald Trump insists the fighting is moving towards an end.
Russian defence spending could approach 17tn roubles ($199bn) by the end of 2026, according to two people familiar with the government cited by Bloomberg. The figure would be about 40 per cent higher than the initial plan approved at the end of last year and would bring this year’s military expenditure close to the amount already budgeted for 2027.
The increase represents a significant reversal of Moscow’s earlier plans to restrain military spending. At the end of 2025, the Kremlin had expected to reduce its budget deficit and begin rebuilding financial reserves that had been heavily depleted during the war.
Those calculations were partly based on expectations that diplomatic efforts could produce progress towards ending the conflict.
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Before Russia’s 2026 budget was approved, President Vladimir Putin met Trump in Anchorage, Alaska. According to Bloomberg’s sources, Putin emerged from the August 2025 meeting hoping an agreement with Ukraine could be reached as early as the following year.
That expectation subsequently faded.
By January, according to the sources, the Kremlin had concluded that a deal was unlikely and that US-led diplomatic efforts had failed to produce the outcome Moscow had anticipated.
The Russian government then accelerated advance payments to defence companies and increased other war-related expenditure, pushing the projected 2026 budget deficit above 7tn roubles, compared with an initial forecast of 3.8tn roubles.
Moscow has financed the additional spending partly through increased domestic borrowing and sales of gold, according to the report.
The scale of the adjustment contrasts sharply with Trump’s latest assessment of the war. The US president said the conflict would end soon, despite acknowledging that there were currently no obvious signs of the fighting stopping.
“A lot of people are dying in that war. It’s ridiculous what’s happened, but it’s, believe it or not, doesn’t look (like) it, but it’s actually getting closer,” Trump said, according to the White House’s YouTube channel.
Trump did not explain what evidence underpinned his assessment. He has repeatedly claimed that he has helped bring an end to eight international conflicts during his second term and described the war between Russia and Ukraine as the “easiest” of those challenges.
The Kremlin’s budget decisions point to a different calculation.
Russia’s current plans allocate 17.1tn roubles for military needs in 2027, followed by 16.6tn roubles in 2028 and 16.3tn roubles in 2029. Bloomberg’s sources suggested actual spending next year could exceed the official allocation if Moscow remains doubtful that a settlement can be reached on terms acceptable to the Russian leadership.
The prolonged mobilisation of resources is placing additional pressure on an economy already constrained by western sanctions and the cost of sustaining the war.
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service has separately warned that Russia is approaching a “major crisis”, arguing that the conflict is demanding increasingly large resources while military losses continue to mount.
The resulting divergence is stark. Washington is publicly signalling confidence that the war is approaching its final phase, while Moscow is committing hundreds of billions of dollars to sustain its military machine.
For Russia’s finances, the central question is no longer simply how much the war costs today, but how long the Kremlin is prepared to keep paying for it.
Almost five years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the country’s budget is being reshaped around the assumption that the conflict — and its enormous financial demands — may continue.
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