More than half of Britons surveyed say they are not confident that the UK could defend itself against a Russian military attack, according to a new poll that underlines public concern over the country’s military preparedness.
The BMG Research survey for the i Paper found that 54 per cent of respondents were either “not very confident” or “not at all confident” in Britain’s ability to repel a Russian attack.
Some 24 per cent said they were “not at all confident”, while 30 per cent described themselves as “not very confident”. By contrast, 34 per cent expressed confidence, with 24 per cent “fairly confident” and only 10 per cent “very confident”. A further 13 per cent said they did not know.
The number of people surveyed was not reported, meaning the findings should be treated with caution when assessing how representative they are of the wider population.
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The results come amid renewed debate over the government’s plans for defence spending and the ability of the armed forces to respond to a rapidly changing security environment.
The government has committed to increasing NATO-qualifying defence spending to 2.7 per cent of GDP from 2027-28 and has set a path towards 3 per cent in the next parliament. It has also committed, alongside other NATO allies, to reach 3.5 per cent of GDP on core defence spending by 2035.
The government’s Defence Investment Plan allocates an additional £15 billion between 2026-27 and 2029-30, taking total Ministry of Defence spending over the four years to almost £298 billion.
Yet concerns remain about the capabilities available to Britain after decades in which defence spending was shaped by the post-Cold War security environment.
Retired General Sir Richard Barrons, co-author of the Strategic Defence Review, told the i Paper that he “admired the 34 per cent” who expressed confidence in Britain’s ability to stop a Russian attack.
“As the SDR made clear last year, the UK has the Armed Forces it ended up with at the end of the post-Cold War era, yet lives now in a new, far more dangerous era of state confrontation and conflict,” he said.
The war in Ukraine has placed particular attention on the threat posed by large-scale missile and drone attacks, with Russia repeatedly launching waves of unmanned aircraft and missiles against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
Britain’s own ability to protect critical infrastructure and population centres from such attacks has consequently become an increasingly prominent issue in the defence debate.
The Royal Navy operates six Type 45 destroyers equipped with the Sea Viper air-defence system, providing an important element of the UK’s maritime air and missile defence capability.
The poll has also intensified political scrutiny of the government’s defence plans. The government says its increased investment is intended to modernise the armed forces and move Britain towards greater warfighting readiness.
Its Strategic Defence Review described the changing international environment as requiring a “step-change” in British defence and set warfighting readiness as the central purpose of the armed forces.
The government has also announced plans for a Home Defence Programme, updated departmental crisis plans and a major home-defence exercise next year.
A government spokesman said: “We’ve delivered the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War – committing nearly £300bn over the next four years. That means more money for the kit and personnel that keep us safe everyday.
“And we’ve launched the Home Defence Programme, to ensure we’re prepared for potential threats, however likely they may be.”
The poll does not establish whether Britain would or would not be able to repel a Russian attack. It does, however, point to a significant gap between public confidence and the government’s increasingly ambitious programme to rebuild military capability.
With Russia’s war against Ukraine continuing to shape European security policy, the debate over how quickly Britain should strengthen its defences is likely to remain at the centre of national security policy.
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