European governments are accelerating contingency planning for a potential wider conflict with Russia, with Germany reviewing hospital capacity for a major influx of wounded troops, France convening an unusual cross-party security briefing and Britain updating Cold War-era plans for how the country would function during a major conflict.
The moves come amid mounting concern over the possibility of Russian attacks against NATO territory, including drone and missile strikes, sabotage of critical infrastructure and other forms of hybrid warfare.
Germany is reviewing the capacity of its civilian and military healthcare systems to cope with a large-scale conflict involving NATO, with military planners assessing that as many as 1,000 wounded soldiers could arrive in the country each day during a major war, leaked plans show, the Mirror reported.
The assessment underlines a potential weakness in Europe’s military preparations: even if Nato forces could sustain combat operations, medical infrastructure could quickly become a limiting factor.
Read more related news:
Royal Navy chief delivers damning warning to Burnham over Britain’s defences
Intelligence warns of a possible Russian ‘false-flag’ operation against NATO
Russia prepares for ‘stealth’ mobilisation as Europe readies for hybrid attacks on NATO
Europe already in a form of ‘World War III’ as Burnham faces pressure to strengthen defences
France has meanwhile brought the country’s political leadership into its security planning. President Emmanuel Macron summoned the leaders of parties represented in parliament, together with candidates, to a meeting on Friday to discuss the international situation and its implications for French security.
French intelligence and security chiefs briefed politicians on the war in Ukraine, the Middle East and what the Élysée described as an intensification of Russian hybrid threats. Macron said France was strengthening vigilance around critical infrastructure and sensitive sites because of the risk of cyber and drone attacks.
The French president said the purpose was to ensure the country remained prepared as the nature of the Russian threat changed.
Britain is also revisiting national contingency planning. The government has confirmed that classified crisis plans, traditionally known as “War Books”, are being updated under its Home Defence Programme. The documents, last comprehensively updated in 2004, set out how government departments would respond to threats against the UK mainland.
The government has also committed to a major national home-defence exercise in 2027 involving ministers, hundreds of officials and public-sector organisations, with a scenario designed to test Britain’s response to hybrid attacks.
The preparations coincide with intelligence assessments that Russia may be laying the administrative groundwork for expanding its armed forces after its parliamentary elections.
One intelligence source told The Telegraph: “What we are seeing is administrative preparations to make it possible to do it, if that was the decision.”
Western officials have questioned whether Moscow possesses sufficient equipment and training capacity to absorb a new mass mobilisation. Instead, intelligence officials believe Russia may rely on a more gradual expansion of its manpower.
“We see lots of what we call ‘stealth’ mobilisation and extra efforts to drive up contract recruitment,” one intelligence source said.
The Kremlin has also intensified its warnings towards Britain over military support for Ukraine. Russian officials have threatened “retaliatory measures” after summoning Britain’s deputy head of mission in Moscow over support for Kyiv, while President Vladimir Putin has warned that British facilities in Ukraine could become “legitimate targets” if they are used to support long-range strikes against Russia.
The Foreign Office rejected the threat, saying: “This is yet another attempt to deflect attention from Russia’s barbaric full scale invasion of Ukraine and discredit the UK on the world stage.
“We are committed to providing the equipment Ukraine needs to defend itself and will not let up on our support to secure a just and lasting peace.”
Poland has issued perhaps the most direct warning of an attempt to test NATO’s political resolve. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said intelligence from European agencies was “very consistent and unfortunately convincing” and suggested Moscow could attempt to disguise attacks on NATO territory as accidents.
“There is a real risk that drones or other types of missiles could enter the territory of one or several countries on the eastern flank, even cause damage, while the official narrative will be that it was an accident”, he told MPs on Friday.
For European governments, the preparations do not amount to evidence that a wider war is imminent. Instead, they reflect a shift in defence planning towards the possibility of sustained conflict in which military operations, cyber attacks, sabotage and pressure on civilian infrastructure occur simultaneously.
That is already forcing governments to consider a question that had largely disappeared from European policymaking after the Cold War: not simply how to fight a war, but whether hospitals, governments and critical infrastructure could withstand one.
Leave a Comment