European intelligence chiefs have warned that Russia is intensifying its campaign of covert warfare against the West, raising concern that Moscow could test NATO’s resolve through a military or hybrid attack on alliance territory.
Senior security officials across Europe believe the Kremlin is escalating sabotage, cyber operations, influence campaigns and other forms of “hybrid” warfare, as governments prepare for the possibility of a more direct confrontation with Russia.
The warning follows comments from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk that intelligence shared with Western partners indicated Russia could launch a drone or missile attack against NATO territory in the coming months.
Such an assault, he warned, could test whether the alliance’s Article 5 mutual-defence commitment was “more theoretical than practical”.
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Michal Koudelka, director of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, said false-flag provocations, hybrid attacks and extensive influence operations were no longer remote possibilities.
A Russian breach of NATO territory could happen within “months, not years”, according to remarks reported by the Daily Mail.
The warnings come as European governments seek to strengthen defences around critical infrastructure following a series of suspected Russian-linked incidents.
French President Emmanuel Macron has commissioned defence protocols to protect vital national infrastructure against potential Russian “hybrid attacks”, while European security officials have increasingly focused on sabotage, cyber operations and attempts to probe the alliance’s vulnerabilities.
Philip Ingram, a security expert, said Russia was systematically testing Western limits through suspected sabotage operations, including alleged drone explosives at Germany’s Leipzig airport and reported airspace breaches near energy facilities and military installations in the UK and elsewhere in Europe.
He also pointed to assassination threats against Western defence officials and cyber attacks targeting power networks and public infrastructure.
“The only way to properly stop Putin is to topple Putin,” Ingram said.
The assessments underline the widening gap between diplomatic efforts to revive negotiations over Ukraine and European intelligence agencies’ assessment of Moscow’s intentions.
Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s military intelligence service, rejected expectations of an imminent diplomatic breakthrough, accusing the Kremlin of “playing negotiation theatre” while maintaining its expansionist ambitions.
At the same time, Russia’s political system remains firmly under President Vladimir Putin’s control.
The pro-Kremlin United Russia party declared a sweeping victory in Russia’s first wartime parliamentary vote, amid allegations of ballot-stuffing, pre-marked ballots and the suppression of political opposition.
Yabloko, described as the country’s sole anti-war party, was barred from participating in the poll. Its leader, Nikolai Rybakov, said he believed the party could have finished second without electoral interference.
Moscow’s increasingly confrontational rhetoric towards Europe has added another layer of risk.
Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and prime minister and one of Putin’s closest allies, accused European governments of “waging a direct war against Russia”, as Western sanctions tighten and military support for Ukraine continues.
Writing on Telegram, Medvedev said: “I never cease to be amazed at the audacity of these European cripples. They’ve imposed total sanctions against our businesses, hit the interests of millions of Russian citizens (blocking their credit cards, for example), and even banned cultural ties with our country.
“They’re waging a direct war against Russia, supplying our adversary with everything they can – from missiles and intelligence to direct funding for the Bandera regime.
“And lo and behold, their companies are sacred cows. Leave Nestlé, Auchan, and the rest of the companies that brought us decent profits.
“Even the temporary management by presidential decree has caused a wave of panic among European governments. Hey, you wretches! What are you talking about?
“Ideally, we should move beyond temporary management of foreign assets. It would be worth recalling the first acts of Soviet power, under which foreign factories and plants were forcibly and gratuitously seized and placed into state ownership.
“And no one has ever returned anything to anyone. After all, just like a hundred years ago, the Eurobastards understand only brute force.
“P.S. However, overseas, they also hear only the language of direct military deterrence, which is the appropriate response to Russophobic abominations like the Dead Terrorist Graham Act.”
His comments came as the US and its allies expanded sanctions targeting Russian officials, financial institutions and vessels associated with the so-called “shadow fleet”, increasing economic pressure on Moscow while diplomatic efforts over Ukraine continue.



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