US President Donald Trump has warned that Russia has “lost control” of its diesel industry after a sustained Ukrainian campaign against the country’s oil refineries, highlighting the increasingly global economic consequences of the war in Ukraine.
Writing on his Truth Social platform on Monday, Trump said: “Russia has unfortunately lost control of its Diesel Oil Industry due to its War with Ukraine. A large number of their Diesel refineries have been blown up and are, at least temporarily, out of commission. This ridiculous and never-ending War with Ukraine must be ended.”
Trump also claimed that “25,000 people, mostly soldiers” were being killed each month, as he renewed his call for an end to the conflict.
His comments came a day after a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and ahead of their planned meeting in New York on Tuesday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
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The exchange has put Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure at the centre of a wider debate over global fuel markets. Trump has previously blamed Ukrainian strikes for contributing to higher diesel prices, while reporting from the Financial Times said he pressed Zelensky during Sunday’s call to halt attacks on Russian refineries.
The issue is particularly sensitive for Washington as US diesel prices have reached record levels, putting pressure on transport, farming and other fuel-intensive industries. The Financial Times reported that Trump’s concerns include the impact of expensive diesel on American consumers and businesses ahead of November’s midterm elections.
But the relationship between Ukrainian refinery strikes and global diesel prices is more complicated.
Research cited by the FT from the Kyiv School of Economics indicates that the US-Iran war has had a larger effect on global diesel markets than the war in Ukraine. Gulf exports are estimated to have fallen by 152mn barrels between March and August, compared with a 68mn-barrel decline in Russian exports over the same period.
The broader energy shock has also been driven by disruption around the Middle East and a shortage of refining capacity, with refined fuels becoming particularly constrained.
Russia’s refining problems are nevertheless substantial. A Ukrainian drone attack on the Moscow oil refinery on Sunday damaged both of its main crude distillation units, forcing the facility to halt crude processing. The refinery accounted for 11.6mn tonnes of crude processing in 2024 and produced about 3.2mn tonnes of diesel. Industry sources told Reuters that repairs could take several weeks.
The disruption has not, however, eliminated Russia’s ability to export diesel. Reuters reported on Monday that Russian diesel shipments to Central Asian countries more than doubled in August to more than 370,000 tonnes, helped by a recovery in domestic production. The country continues to restrict exports to most international markets, although exemptions apply to several countries with intergovernmental agreements.
Ukraine has nevertheless made Russia’s oil infrastructure an increasingly important target. Kyiv has argued that attacks on refineries and other energy facilities can reduce Moscow’s ability to finance and sustain its military campaign.
Zelensky struck a more diplomatic tone after his conversation with Trump, describing the discussion as an important step towards renewed engagement.
“An important conversation, and we got through a lot. We agreed to meet in New York, and this meeting could change a lot. There is diplomatic momentum,” he said, according to his office.
He also referred to possible de-escalation measures and thanked Trump for signing new sanctions legislation targeting Russia’s energy sector.
“We are working together with the American team and are ready to take really serious steps. I thanked the American President for signing the Lindsey Graham bill into law. We all concur – there must be peace,” Zelensky added.
The Ukrainian president has previously indicated that Kyiv could support an energy ceasefire, but has insisted that Russia would need to observe the same restrictions.
That condition reflects the central difficulty facing any proposed pause in attacks: Ukraine has used strikes against Russian energy infrastructure as a means of imposing economic and military pressure, while Russia continues to target Ukrainian energy facilities.
For global fuel markets, the consequences are increasingly difficult to separate from the wider geopolitical shock. Refinery outages in Russia are tightening supplies of refined products, while disruption in the Middle East is putting additional pressure on crude and fuel markets.
The result is an energy market in which the Ukraine war is no longer simply a regional security crisis. It is increasingly being felt through the price and availability of the fuels that keep the global economy moving.
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