A prominent European leader has warned that Vladimir Putin could be capable of launching an attack on NATO territory within months, amid growing unease over the alliance’s preparedness and the reliability of US backing.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the “biggest, most important question” facing Europe was whether the United States would fully honour its NATO commitments in the event of a Russian strike, raising doubts about the strength of Article 5 — the alliance’s mutual defence clause.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Tusk warned the outlook was “rather months than years”, and said European security now depended on whether allies were ready, politically and militarily, to respond to a rapid escalation.
Tusk told the paper: “For the whole eastern flank… the question is if NATO is still an organisation ready to react, for example against Russia if they try to attack,” he said, adding that Poland treats its alliance obligations as existential.”
Read more related news:
Alarm bells sound in Europe as spies warn Russia could escalate after Ukraine
Diplomacy goes off script as ‘Donnyland’ idea surfaces in Ukraine talks
Putin turns fuel boss as refineries keep catching fire amid Ukraine’s successful strikes
Silent shifts inside Russia hint at growing unease over Ukraine war
Tusk’s comments reflect wider anxiety across Eastern Europe, where officials fear Moscow could attempt limited strikes or territorial pressure in the Baltic region to test NATO’s resolve. Some analysts have pointed to exposed territories and islands in the Baltic Sea as potential flashpoints.
Among those cited are Sweden’s Gotland, Denmark’s Bornholm, and Estonia’s Saaremaa and Hiiumaa — strategically located islands that could, in theory, be used to probe alliance readiness.
The concerns are compounded by questions over US political will under Donald Trump, with European leaders privately debating how Washington might respond in a fast-moving crisis.
Tusk said Poland remains confident in its close relationship with the United States, but admitted uncertainty over how commitments would translate in practice during a real conflict.
“I want to believe that Article 5 is still valid,” he said, “but sometimes I have some problems.”
His remarks come as NATO members debate how to reinforce Europe’s eastern flank, including troop deployments and rapid cross-border mobility planning. Around 900 British troops are currently stationed in Estonia as part of NATO’s forward presence.
Sweden’s defence chief has also warned of possible Russian planning around the Baltic islands as part of wider testing operations against the alliance.
Moscow has denied any intent to attack NATO territory, instead accusing Ukraine of using neighbouring states to launch drone strikes against Russian infrastructure — claims Western officials have dismissed.
Senior Russian officials have meanwhile escalated rhetoric, warning NATO against actions in the Baltic Sea and accusing alliance members of enabling Ukrainian operations.
The increasingly sharp exchange underscores a deteriorating security environment in Europe, where military planners are now openly considering scenarios that were once regarded as remote.
Leave a Comment