Vladimir Putin’s forces are showing growing signs of exhaustion on the Ukrainian frontlines after Kyiv reclaimed more territory last month than Russia managed to seize, according to battlefield analysts.
The setback marks the first net territorial loss for Moscow since Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region last year, dealing a symbolic blow to Kremlin claims that Russian victory is inevitable.
The US-based Institute for the Study of War said Ukrainian forces had managed to regain ground despite Russia still occupying around 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory.
The development cuts against repeated claims from Mr Putin that Russia’s grinding offensive is steadily advancing toward victory, with critics arguing that Moscow’s gains have come at enormous human and material cost since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
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Western officials estimate Russian casualties are running at between 30,000 and 35,000 troops per month, amid increasingly fierce attritional fighting across eastern and southern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov claimed Kyiv had achieved “record-breaking” success on the battlefield in recent months.
“We have eliminated 35,000 Russians in both April and March,” he said. “Russia lacks the forces to continue offensive operations. The Ukrainian army is exhausting the Russians.”
Precise casualty numbers remain difficult to verify independently, with Moscow continuing to withhold official military losses.
However, independent Russian outlet Mediazona, working with BBC Russian, has identified more than 217,000 Russian servicemen killed since the war began, while Ukrainian estimates place total Russian losses far higher.
Analysts say the war has increasingly become one of attrition, with Russia relying on manpower-heavy assaults to make often marginal territorial gains at huge cost.
The conflict has now entered its fifth year and is widely regarded as Europe’s deadliest war since the Second World War.
Despite Russia’s larger population and military-industrial capacity, Ukrainian officials argue Moscow’s forces are becoming increasingly overstretched, fatigued and dependent on relentless mobilisation to sustain operations.
The latest battlefield data is likely to intensify debate over whether Russia can maintain its current offensive tempo without another major mobilisation drive, which the Kremlin has so far sought to avoid amid concerns about domestic backlash.
For Kyiv, the reported territorial gains offer a rare strategic boost at a time when Ukraine continues to face pressure over manpower shortages, ammunition supplies and the long-term sustainability of Western support.
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