Bitcoin is trading around $86,500–$86,800, up more than 2% over the past 24 hours and once again approaching the $87,000 level.
The recovery has been driven by a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report, which significantly reduced the likelihood of another Fed rate hike in October.
However, Bitcoin has yet to break above its recent high, indicating that buyers are regaining the upper hand but have not gained full control of the market.
The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below the forecast of 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.1% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, while payroll figures for July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000.
Following the report, the probability of a Fed rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting declined significantly. However, this repricing had already begun as inflation data showed signs of cooling. The weak employment report further strengthened expectations that the Fed could pause in October and supported Bitcoin’s recovery.
However, the market cannot yet view this as a signal of a complete shift in monetary policy. The Fed raised its target rate range to 3.75%–4.00% in September, while its median projection still places the policy rate at 4.1% at the end of the year, suggesting that another increase remains possible before the end of 2026. The PCE price index still rose by 3.4% year-on-year in August, while core PCE stood at 3.0%. Therefore, although the weak employment report could encourage the Fed to pause in October, elevated inflation and Treasury yields may continue to limit Bitcoin’s upside.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $2.65 billion in September and $6.34 billion during the third quarter. However, the pace of inflows has slowed considerably. According to preliminary data from Farside, net inflows during the week from September 28 to October 2 reached approximately $83 million, well below the nearly $2.4 billion recorded in the previous week.
On-chain data also present a mixed picture. The amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges continues to decline, potentially reducing the supply of coins readily available for trading. However, the 30-day demand indicator remains negative, while the Coinbase Premium has been negative for 26 consecutive days, suggesting that relative buying pressure on Coinbase has not kept pace with the price recovery.
In my view, Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains tilted to the upside. The trend would become more convincing if the price advance were simultaneously confirmed by ETF inflows, spot demand, and a sustained easing in U.S. Treasury yields.
If ETF inflows accelerate again, U.S. spot demand improves, and Treasury yields decline, Bitcoin could break above the $87,000–$87,500 area and move toward the psychological $90,000 level, followed by $100,000. Conversely, if the price continues to rise while spot demand weakens and leveraged positioning expands, the market could become increasingly vulnerable to a correction when selling pressure emerges.
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