The chance of Boris Johnson being replaced as Prime Minister this year has continued to rise in recent weeks and now stands at 34%, according to the latest odds on the Smarkets betting exchange.
It’s now rated as almost exactly 50/50 as to whether Johnson will lead the Conservatives into the next general election.
The Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has leapt to the top of the market in the race to replace Johnson as Tory leader, now standing at a 14% chance.
The Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s odds have plummeted to just 7%, and Truss’ closest challengers are now Ben Wallace, Jeremy Hunt and Tom Tugendhat (all 10%).
Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Political Markets said, “Whilst the pressure on Boris Johnson is undoubtedly increasing, political punters remain somewhat sceptical that this will lead to him being evicted from Number 10 this year.
“The level of Tory backbench support or otherwise in Thursday’s motion to refer him to a formal investigation might change those odds significantly.
“The collapse of Sunak’s chance of succeeding Johnson has seen Liz Truss take over as favourite to be next Conservative leader, but the field is tightly packed.
“Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has been a significant market mover and now occupies joint-second place in the betting.”