Home Business News The live odds at Smarkets suggest there is a 73% chance that Boris Johnson wins tonight’s no-confidence vote

The live odds at Smarkets suggest there is a 73% chance that Boris Johnson wins tonight’s no-confidence vote

by LLB political Reporter
6th Jun 22 12:14 pm

The live odds at Smarkets suggest there is a 73% chance that Boris Johnson will win tonight’s no-confidence vote, it was closer to 50/50 when it was first announced this morning but the likelihood of him winning it has since increased.

Jeremy Hunt is the current favourite to succeed Johnson as Conservative leader, although his probability is only 17%. Liz Truss (12%), Penny Mordaunt (11%) and Tom Tugendhat (11%) are the only other contenders with a double-figure chance.

Smarkets also have specific markets on if there will be over or under 150 and 130 votes against Johnson, and one on the overall margin of tonight’s vote.

Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Political Markets said, “The early betting at Smarkets has moved strongly in favour of Boris Johnson winning tonight’s no-confidence vote.

“The chances were rated at almost exactly 50/50 when Sir Graham Brady made his announcement and quickly moved in favour of the Prime Minister. He’s currently given a 73% chance of winning but these odds are likely to fluctuate in what will be an exciting day for the betting markets.

“The live odds at Smarkets now suggest that around 140 MPs will vote against Johnson, well short of the 180 needed to remove him from office.”

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