Home Business News R rate has bounced back to as high as 1 with ‘case numbers to rise next week’

R rate has bounced back to as high as 1 with ‘case numbers to rise next week’

by LLB political Reporter
2nd Apr 21 2:06 pm

The government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) have said that England’s R rate could now be as high as 1, meaning every 10 people who test positives will pass the virus on to an average of 8 to 10 other people.

Last week the Department of Health estimated that R number to be between 0.7 and 0.9.

This comes as the Boris Johnson’s roadmap out of lockdown allows people of six to meet from any number of households and they can meet in a group of any size from up to two households.

Sage said, “Given the increasingly localised approach to managing the epidemic, particularly between nations, UK-level estimates are less meaningful than previously and may not accurately reflect the current picture of the epidemic.

“The R value and growth rates for the four nations and NHS England regions are more robust and useful metrics than those for the whole UK.”

Experts are warning that Brits should expect a fourth lockdown if people flout the rules and let their guard slip over the Easter Weekend.

Public Health England (PHE) also warned that “we’re not out of the woods yet” and are strongly urging people to stick to social distancing measures.

PHE medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle said, “As restrictions lift and the weather improves, we cannot drop our guard.

“We’re not out of the woods quite yet.

“Until all of us are protected, it remains essential to follow the steps we know stop the virus from spreading.”

Scientific experts are warning that if people do not exercise caution then case numbers will “rise next week” and another lockdown could be around the corner.

Virologist Professor Lawrence Young told the Sun newspaper, “While the risk of transmission is low in outdoor spaces, crowding together could result in some spread of the virus and it’s too easy to take liberties which we consider to be low risk but aren’t e.g. close contact by hugging or popping inside to go to somebody else’s toilet.

“We need to hang on in there with the current restrictions for a bit longer, none of us want another lockdown.”

Professor Adam Finn wrote on Twitter, “Throngs of young people crowded together in their hundreds enjoying the beautiful warm evening together by the water.

“A complete change. If this is happening everywhere then we can confidently expect case numbers to rise next week.”

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