Vladimir Putin reportedly remains confident that Russian forces can secure a breakthrough in the Donbas within the next year, despite mounting evidence that the Kremlin’s offensive has slowed to a near crawl on the battlefield, according to Western analysts.
A new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that Moscow’s expectations may be being shaped by overly optimistic or incomplete reporting from within Russia’s military command structure, raising questions over the accuracy of information reaching the Kremlin.
The analysis points to a Financial Times report published on May 28, which cited sources claiming that Putin believes his forces could capture the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by autumn 2026. According to the same sources, the Russian president is then expected to push for expanded territorial demands in any future negotiations.
However, ISW data paints a markedly different picture of battlefield momentum.
Since the start of 2026, Russian forces are assessed to have advanced at an average rate of just 2.63 square kilometres per day in the Donetsk region, a pace analysts say would make full control of the remaining territory extremely slow — and potentially unachievable within the timeframe being discussed in Moscow.
For comparison, ISW notes that between January and late May 2025, Russian forces captured approximately 1,619 square kilometres in the region. Over the same period in 2026, that figure has fallen sharply to just 104 square kilometres.
Even when areas temporarily entered but not held are included, totalling around 628 square kilometres, the overall rate of advance still falls significantly short of last year’s performance.
Analysts argue that this slowdown raises the possibility that Russian military leadership may be presenting an inflated picture of progress to the Kremlin, potentially masking operational difficulties on the ground. ISW suggests such distortions could be reinforcing unrealistic strategic expectations in Moscow and contributing to a widening gap between political aims and military reality.
The findings come amid continued Western assessments that Russia is pursuing a long war of attrition in Ukraine, with heavy losses in personnel and equipment alongside incremental territorial gains.
Despite this, sources cited in Western media claim Putin remains convinced that sustained pressure will eventually deliver full control of the Donbas, with the expectation that Russia could hold stronger negotiating leverage if that objective is achieved.
However, analysts caution that current battlefield trends indicate diminishing returns for Russia’s offensive operations, further complicating the question of whether such goals are achievable within the timeframe outlined by the Kremlin.
The ISW assessment concludes that if Russian decision-making continues to be shaped by overstated battlefield reporting, it may further reduce the likelihood of a negotiated settlement, entrenching expectations of gains that the military is increasingly struggling to deliver.
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