Vladimir Putin is facing mounting pressure to expand Russia’s military manpower as Ukraine’s intelligence chief warns that Moscow could struggle to sustain the war in Ukraine without a major new mobilisation.
Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, said Russian generals were urging the Kremlin to mobilise as many as 800,000 additional troops after nationwide elections this month.
The intelligence assessment comes as Russia attempts to sustain a recruitment drive of about 1,000 people a day. Ivashchenko said that rate was increasingly insufficient to compensate for battlefield losses.
“Russia has military and economic resources for the next year, but we estimate it will end in 2028,” he told The Times.
The Ukrainian intelligence chief said Russian casualties were running at approximately 1,410 a day, with about 60 per cent killed in action. Western intelligence assessments broadly support the picture of a widening manpower gap, with Russia estimated to be losing about 6,000 more soldiers each month than it can recruit.
However, Ivashchenko cautioned that an 800,000-strong mobilisation would not necessarily translate into hundreds of thousands of additional troops reaching the battlefield.
“In reality, the army can simultaneously absorb — mobilise, equip, feed, train and integrate — no more than 300,000 to 500,000 recruits,” he said.
Ukraine’s HUR intelligence agency estimates that Russia has suffered 1,502,390 military casualties since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies has put total Russian casualties at about 1.4mn, including as many as 450,000 deaths.
The intensity of fighting has also been transformed by advances in drones and artificial intelligence. Ukraine’s approximately 20-mile “kill zone” has become one of the most lethal areas of the battlefield, with troops increasingly exposed to persistent surveillance and drone strikes.
Ivashchenko said the impact was contributing to “very low” morale among the Russian population.
Rather than ordering another mass mobilisation, Putin has sought to expand recruitment through financial incentives and foreign manpower. HUR estimates that more than 28,000 foreign nationals have been recruited into Russian military ranks, including increasing numbers from African countries attracted by promises of high salaries.
“We’re working to stop this by passing information to the relevant security and intelligence services.
“We also conduct non-kinetic operations to inform the population in the relevant countries,” Ivashchenko said.
Russia has also relied heavily on North Korean military support. HUR estimates that about 8,000 North Korean troops are currently deployed in the Kursk region, with that figure potentially rising to 50,000.
Pyongyang has additionally supplied Moscow with ballistic missiles. Ukrainian intelligence estimates North Korea has provided at least 150 KN-23 or KN-24 missiles for use against Ukraine.
Putin has repeatedly rejected suggestions that Russia is preparing another mobilisation, dismissing the claims as Ukrainian disinformation.
“There is no scenario today that would require mobilization,” the Russian president said earlier this month.
He added: “This is a disinformation campaign by the enemy in the run-up to the State Duma elections, aimed at influencing the outcome.”
The conflicting assessments highlight the Kremlin’s central manpower dilemma: maintaining Russia’s offensive without imposing the political costs of another unpopular nationwide mobilisation.
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