Lithuania has warned that Russia could attempt a hybrid or false-flag operation designed to test NATO’s willingness to mount a collective response, as governments across Eastern Europe prepare for possible escalation.
Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said Lithuania had received the same intelligence about a potential Russian operation as other countries in the region and allied forces deployed to the Baltics.
“I want to assure everyone that Lithuania has the same intelligence information as other countries in the region and countries that have deployed their forces here,” he said.
Budrys said he had discussed the intelligence with NATO’s secretary-general, his deputy and European military commanders to establish whether allies shared the same assessment.
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“I wanted to make sure that we are talking about the same thing. The news is this – yes, we are talking about the same thing. Lithuania has the same information; we talked about it as a possible false flag operation from Russia,” Budrys stressed.
He said public warnings from European leaders were themselves part of a coordinated effort to deter Moscow from believing that a provocation could avoid triggering a collective NATO response.
“I also consider the public statements by politicians to be part of a coordinated campaign, the goal of which is to warn Russia not to try to do something in the hope that it will not trigger Article 5 and will not cause escalation,” he said.
Budrys added that regional governments had demonstrated their ability to detect and disrupt hostile operations and identify those responsible.
“Russia will not hide. We just need to avoid negative consequences. Today, the situation has not changed,” he said.
The warnings follow comments from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk that the coming weeks and months could see increased Russian activity, including the possibility of incidents affecting Polish territory.
Poland’s National Security Bureau has also warned that Russian intelligence services have intensified activity targeting infrastructure supporting Ukraine, including railways, bridges and border crossings.
Lithuania has meanwhile prepared evacuation plans for Vilnius in the event of a major security crisis, with Poland identified as a potential route for civilians leaving the country and a transit corridor for the wider Baltic region.
For NATO’s eastern members, the concern is increasingly focused not only on a conventional Russian attack, but on whether Moscow could manufacture a limited crisis intended to probe the alliance’s political and military response.
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