Russian intelligence agencies have intensified efforts to disrupt European infrastructure used to sustain military support for Ukraine, according to Poland’s National Security Bureau, as Warsaw warns that Moscow is expanding its campaign below the threshold of open war.
Major General Adam Rzeczkowski, director of the bureau’s Department for Oversight of the Armed Forces, said aggressive activity had been documented since early September, targeting infrastructure considered critical to the movement of aid.
“Blocking the ability to provide aid to Ukraine is the main objective of the Russian actions in Europe. Russia has failed to cut Ukraine off from financial support, so it has shifted to attempts to destroy infrastructure,” he said.
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The infrastructure identified by the bureau includes railways, bridges and border crossings, highlighting the vulnerability of the transport networks through which European assistance reaches Ukraine.
Polish officials nevertheless said a direct Russian military attack against a NATO member was not considered the most likely short-term scenario. Such an assault would risk triggering a confrontation with the wider alliance.
Instead, Colonel Mariusz Soliwodzki, deputy director of the bureau’s Analysis Department, said Moscow was more likely to intensify operations designed to remain below the traditional threshold of war.
“A more realistic scenario involves increasingly aggressive actions by Russia below the so-called threshold of war, including the use of purely military means,” he said.
Soliwodzki also assessed the likelihood of further Russian mobilisation following the State Duma elections as moderately high, while warning that the scale remained uncertain.
“However, an escalation of Russian military actions against Ukraine during the fall and winter appears likely,” he said.
Warsaw said Russia’s confrontation with Europe should be viewed as a long-term threat rather than one dependent on the continuation of fighting in Ukraine.
“Even a possible ceasefire, a freeze, or even the end of the war in Ukraine will not eliminate the long-term threat posed by Russia to the states of the region,” Soliwodzki said.
The assessment reflects growing European concern that Russia’s campaign against Ukraine is increasingly being fought through sabotage, intelligence operations and pressure on infrastructure far beyond the battlefield.
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