Russia is preparing what Ukrainian officials have warned could be the most punishing winter of the war, with a vast campaign of missile and drone strikes designed to cripple Ukraine’s electricity and water networks and potentially disrupt the country’s nuclear power infrastructure.
Kyiv has warned that Moscow is preparing to exploit the winter cold by attacking the systems that keep millions of Ukrainians supplied with electricity, heating and water.
The warning follows a major Russian assault on Wednesday, when a thermal power plant and other energy facilities in Kyiv were struck, leaving parts of the capital without electricity and water.
Ukrainian officials say the attack could mark the beginning of a broader winter campaign involving ballistic missiles, glide bombs and increasingly sophisticated jet-powered drones that can be difficult for Ukrainian air defences to intercept.
Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s energy minister, reportedly presented European partners in Paris with an intercepted Russian planning document outlining the proposed campaign.
The document, seen by the New York Times, reportedly envisages attacks involving as many as 1,000 missiles, drones and bombs, aimed at overwhelming Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and putting sustained pressure on the country’s population and economy.
The reported targets include electrical substations, hydroelectric and thermal power plants and boiler houses.
Most significantly, according to the reported plan, Russian forces could target the electrical switchyards connecting Ukraine’s three operating nuclear power plants to the national grid.
The switchyards are situated close to the reactors, raising concerns that strikes could create serious safety risks even if the nuclear facilities themselves were not directly hit.
The objective, according to the Ukrainian assessment, would be to sever the connection between the nuclear plants and the wider electricity network, further destabilising Ukraine’s power system as temperatures fall.
The reported Russian planning also includes dozens of ballistic missiles and glide bombs aimed at Ukraine’s water infrastructure, according to Shmyhal’s reported briefing to European officials.
Such an operation would represent a significant expansion of the infrastructure war that has accompanied Russia’s invasion, moving beyond electricity generation towards the basic systems required to keep Ukrainian cities functioning.
Ukraine has endured repeated Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure throughout the war. Previous winter campaigns caused extensive damage to power generation and distribution, forcing authorities to introduce emergency blackouts and leaving millions without reliable electricity during periods of freezing weather.
The nuclear dimension is particularly sensitive.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, has been under Russian control since March 2022 and has repeatedly been at the centre of international concern over nuclear safety.
The facility has been surrounded by fighting and has experienced incidents involving strikes and damage during the conflict. In April, a drone strike killed a driver at the site, while in May the International Atomic Energy Agency was informed that a laboratory at the plant had been hit.
The IAEA has repeatedly warned about the dangers posed by military activity around nuclear facilities.
Kyiv’s latest warning comes as both sides increasingly target infrastructure far behind the front line. Ukraine has expanded its long-range attacks on Russian oil refineries, fuel depots and military-industrial sites, while Moscow has continued to develop the means to strike Ukrainian infrastructure at scale.
For Ukraine, the threat is not simply another winter of power cuts. A sustained campaign against electricity, heating and water infrastructure could place additional strain on an economy already operating under wartime conditions.
And if the reported plans to target nuclear switchyards are implemented, the risks could extend beyond another energy crisis — raising a far more serious question about the safety of Ukraine’s nuclear infrastructure as the winter campaign begins.
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