Moscow’s much-vaunted summer push is losing momentum, with fresh analysis suggesting Russian forces are now yielding more territory than they are able to take, according to battlefield monitoring by the Institute for the Study of War.
In May, Ukrainian units are assessed to have regained roughly 280 square kilometres of territory, while Russian advances amounted to around 40 square kilometres. April showed a similar pattern, with Ukrainian forces retaking more than four times the ground seized by Moscow’s troops.
Analysts caution that Russian gains often amount to fleeting infiltrations by small assault groups rather than durable territorial control, complicating claims of sustained advance. In several sectors, Russian units numbering only a handful of soldiers have been reported probing Ukrainian positions before being pushed back.
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The fluctuating front lines, combined with the growing role of long-range drone warfare, have made precise assessments increasingly difficult. But the broader picture, analysts say, is consistent: Russia’s offensive tempo is slowing while losses remain high.
The Institute for the Study of War notes that the Kremlin continues to insist on maximalist war aims framed around what it calls the “root causes” of the conflict, despite diminishing battlefield returns. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently reiterated demands centred on the rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine as a precondition for any settlement.
Ukrainian officials argue that Moscow is attempting to reframe stalled advances as strategic progress. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office has maintained that Russia is unable to achieve its original operational objectives, thereby forcing a gradual scaling back of its stated goals.
Western intelligence assessments cited in recent reporting suggest Russian casualty rates remain severe, with tens of thousands reportedly killed or wounded each month, placing strain on recruitment and reserve systems. Despite this, the Kremlin continues to present the war as grinding forward on its own terms.
Some observers now describe the conflict as entering a phase of attritional stagnation, in which territorial movement is measured in metres rather than miles, and both sides are increasingly focused on degrading each other’s capacity rather than achieving decisive breakthroughs.
Against that backdrop, reports from financial and defence analysts suggest even senior Russian figures acknowledge an emerging stalemate, with no clear pathway to a decisive resolution on the current trajectory.
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