There is a ‘66% chance’ the Bank of England will raise interest rates in December

The latest prediction-market data from Smarkets indicates that there is now a 66% chance that the Bank of England will raise interest rates at the December meeting of their Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The MPC voted 7-2 for no change in November but following the latest rises in inflation, a 9-0 vote in favour of a raise next month is currently rated the most likely outcome at 37%.

Meanwhile, the prospect of the average UK house price rising above £275,000 before the end of 2021 has also risen, from 50% to 57%.

The chance of a UK recession in 2022 is holding steady, with the latest Smarkets prices putting the probability at around 1 in 4.

Note: prices do not always add up to exactly 100%

Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Political Markets said, “The chance of a December rise in interest rates has climbed from 60% to 66% this week after the evidence given by the Governor of the Bank of England to MPs and now the rise in inflation announced on Wednesday.

“Smarkets have also released a market on how many members of the Monetary Policy Committee will vote for a rise, with a unanimous 9-0 tally currently rated the most likely outcome at 37%.

“Meanwhile, the latest official house price data also indicates that the average UK property price could rise to above £275,000 by the end of 2021.

“According to our odds, it’s now more likely than not (57%) that it will hit that mark, up from September’s average of just under £270k.”