The chance of Boris Johnson being ousted as Prime Minister in 2022 has now risen to 46%, up from 33% in the last week, according to the latest odds on the Smarkets betting exchange.
Jeremy Hunt has taken over as the new favourite to replace him as Tory leader, currently with a 13% chance.
Despite rumours of it coming early, Smarkets odds imply a 78% chance that the next general election will take place in 2024.
The latest prices for next week’s local elections suggest a high chance of some key Labour victories including the London councils of Wandsworth and Barnet, as well as the newly created Croydon mayoralty.
Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Political Markets said, “Boris Johnson’s prospects have taken a sharp turn for the worse over the last week according to the most recent trading at Smarkets. Government attempts to prevent the PM being referred to the privileges committee have failed and speculation about the possible contents of the final Sue Gray report has not helped either.
“Next week’s local elections do not look very promising for the Conservatives either, and Johnson may well come under even more pressure if the betting is anything to go by. The Tories look set to lose some notable contests in London and may well fall back into third place in Scotland.
“As a result, the market on who’ll replace him is hotting up and Jeremy Hunt has now taken over as favourite to be the next Tory leader. Liz Truss has dropped back into second place with Ben Wallace, Tom Tugendhat and Penny Mordaunt following close behind in what looks a wide open race.”