Sadiq Khan has risen to a record-high 97% to be re-elected as Mayor of London and there’s a 38% chance that Khan becomes the first candidate since the position was created in 2002 to be elected mayor with over 50% of the first-round vote.
The Conservatives’ Shaun Bailey looks almost certain to finish second (97%), while Siân Berry of the Green Party and Luisa Porritt of the Liberal Democrats are battling for third place.
Patrick Flynn, Smarkets Political Analyst said, “The race to become London mayor is so uncompetitive, with Labour incumbent Sadiq Khan up to an all-time high of 97% to be re-elected, that it seems almost hard to believe that the mayoralty was in Conservative hands between 2008 and 2016.
“Both Brexit and Labour’s dominance with the under-45s in the Corbyn era accelerated a shift towards Labour in London (a young, remain-voting city), and that shift does not look likely to be reversed any time soon.
“The Conservatives’ problems in London go beyond a weak candidate in Shaun Bailey (who is a 97% chance to finish in second place) as some of their remaining seats in the capital, most of which are in outer London, look likely to fall at the next general election.
“Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s own seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip in outer London recorded a Conservative lead over Labour 3 percentage points higher than the UK at-large in 2019, yet Johnson’s lead was 17 points higher than the national picture in 2015, a relative shift of 14 points towards Labour in just four years.
“Labour’s dominance in the capital is so strong at the moment that Sadiq Khan is a 38% chance to become the first London mayor in history to win a majority of the vote in the first round. In any case, whether it takes him one round or two, Khan is on course for a resounding victory.”