The war in Ukraine has entered a new phase – and for the first time since Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion, a European leader believes the battlefield mathematics are moving decisively against the Kremlin.
In a striking assessment, Finnish President Alexander Stubb argued that Ukraine now finds itself in a stronger military position than Russia, pointing to mounting Russian casualties, slowing territorial gains and Kyiv’s growing dominance in drone warfare.
After more than four years of grinding conflict, Mr Stubb said the struggle was no longer principally about survival or resilience.
“The first year of the war was about survival. The next three years were about resilience,” he said. “Now it is a question of mathematics – battlefield mathematics.”
His argument rests on a simple but potentially devastating calculation.
According to figures cited by the Finnish president, Russia is currently losing around 35,000 soldiers every month through deaths and injuries. Yet the Kremlin is only able to recruit roughly 27,000 replacements during the same period.
The result is a widening manpower deficit that threatens the sustainability of Moscow’s war effort.
For a conflict that Putin expected to win within weeks in 2022, the figures paint a stark picture of attrition.
Even more alarming for the Kremlin is the changing casualty ratio. Whereas Ukraine was once suffering heavy losses while defending against larger Russian formations, Mr Stubb said the ratio has shifted dramatically in Kyiv’s favour.
Last winter, Ukraine was losing one soldier for every three Russians. Today, he claims, that ratio has widened to one Ukrainian for every eight Russian troops.
The transformation reflects the changing nature of modern warfare.
According to Mr Stubb, some 95 per cent of casualties are now caused not by infantry assaults but by drones, missiles and precision strikes.
Huge stretches of the eastern and southern front have effectively become lethal no-man’s lands.
“The kill zone is between 20 and 40 kilometres deep,” he said.
Within that zone, the chances of survival are perilously low.
Russia has increasingly resorted to sending tiny assault groups consisting of just a handful of soldiers across these deadly areas, often at enormous cost for negligible gains.
The figures help explain why Russia’s much-vaunted spring offensive has delivered disappointing results despite enormous expenditure in men and equipment.
Perhaps most embarrassing for Putin is Mr Stubb’s observation that Ukraine retook more territory in April than it lost – a milestone not achieved since the invasion began.
The Kremlin continues to insist that its forces are advancing across the front and that victory remains inevitable.
Yet the reality appears increasingly difficult to disguise.
Four years into the war, Russian troops have advanced only around 60 kilometres beyond territory they already controlled.
Mr Stubb drew an unfavourable comparison with the Soviet advance during the Second World War.
“It took Moscow four years to reach Berlin,” he noted.
In Ukraine, after a similar period, Russia has advanced a fraction of that distance.
The Finnish leader was equally dismissive of warnings that Russia could launch a conventional attack against Nato once the war ends.
Why would Russia test Article 5 if it has failed to conquer Ukraine in four years?” he asked.
That does not mean the threat has disappeared.
Mr Stubb warned that cyber attacks, sabotage operations and other forms of hybrid warfare remain serious concerns.
But his central message was one of confidence rather than alarm.
Behind the scenes, he suggested, the Kremlin faces mounting pressures not only on the battlefield but at home.
Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russian territory are increasingly disrupting daily life, while restrictions on communications platforms such as Telegram and WhatsApp are fuelling frustration among ordinary Russians.
The longer the war drags on, the harder it becomes for Putin to convince his population that victory is around the corner.
For much of the conflict, Western leaders have framed Ukraine’s challenge as simply surviving against a larger and richer adversary.
Mr Stubb’s assessment marks a notable shift.
The question now, he argues, is no longer whether Ukraine can endure.
It is whether Russia can sustain a war whose arithmetic is increasingly working against it.
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